Fact check: Did 'every pro-life governor' win big in midterm elections?

A politician Wisconsinites will remember well was doing some reflecting as the new year dawned about the results of the Nov. 8, 2022, midterm elections.

That’s former Gov. Scott Walker, who led the state from 2011 to early 2019 and now serves as president of Young America’s Foundation, a conservative youth organization.

He argued that voters wanted leadership on the issue and that governors who delivered such leadership "have shown you can be pro-life and win."

Is he right?

Let’s check it out.

Let’s start with the nitty-gritty part of this claim. Which governors oppose abortion, and how big were their winning margins?

Many have signed bills that limited or banned access to abortion in their respective states and have stated their opposition to the procedure. In New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has said he’s "generally pro-choice" but signed a bill restricting abortion access later in pregnancy. He won with 57% of the vote.

Here’s a look at the governors in question, and their vote percentage. All are Republicans:

How one defines a "large" margin, of course, can differ from person to person. Many above won handily, with several percentage points between them and their Democratic opponent, while it was a much closer call for Dunleavy in Alaska.

Fact check: Will the CDC require your student to get a COVID shot?

So, Walker is generally on point that governors who have opposed abortion did well in November’s elections.

But he leaves out a bit of critical context: Candidates who oppose abortion lost, too, meaning governors who support abortion rights did well, including in swing states.

We’ll start here in the Badger State, where Democratic Gov. Tony Evers beat his Republican opponent Tim Michels to secure a second term.

Michels took a hardline stance on abortion, saying repeatedly that he agreed with the 1849 Wisconsin law banning the procedure in most cases. In Evers’ first term, the governor blocked several pieces of legislation aiming to curtail abortion access, filed a lawsuit to overturn the state’s abortion ban and made reproductive freedoms a centerpiece of his re-election campaign.

In bluer states such as California, Minnesota and Colorado, governors who support abortion rights were seeing the same sort of wide-margin wins as the anti-abortion governors Walker cited. Gov. Phil Scott of Vermont, a Republican who last year signed legislation protecting abortion access in the state, won more than 70% of the vote.

Fact check: Does FBI flag parents who 'go to school board meetings?'

"Abortion politics has long suggested that the side angrier about the current state of reproductive policy puts a higher priority on the abortion issue in determining for whom to vote," said Larry Sabato, a national political expert at the University of Virginia.

For decades after the Roe v. Wade decision, it was the anti-abortion side that was angrier, Sabato said. But in an election cycle following Roe v. Wade’s overturn, "the pro-choice side benefited — especially in competitive contests."

All of that speaks to the political makeup of states — perhaps more so than the stand on any particular issue — as well as the power of incumbency.

In short, it’s rare for incumbent governors to lose re-election.

Across the country, only one incumbent lost his chance for a second term — Steve Sisolak of Nevada, a Democrat.

To these ends, Sabato said, Walker’s statement is "a selection fact that doesn’t accurately represent the overall results of the 2022 elections."

Walker said, "Every pro-life governor up for election in November won — by a large margin."

Although a "large" margin is difficult to objectively quantify, Walker’s point is largely accurate.

It leaves out context about why they might have performed so well, such as incumbency and the state’s political makeup – something that benefited governors who support abortion rights, too.

A rating of Mostly True means the statement is accurate but needs clarification or additional information.

That fits here.