NC governor's race: Mark Robinson still GOP favorite, but ECU poll shows challengers gaining
The 2024 Republican primary campaign for governor is getting tighter as the race shapes up, a new poll from East Carolina University shows.
Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is still the favorite, with support from 34% of GOP primary voters. But that's than multiple previous polls that had found him enjoying more than 40% support.
The new ECU poll shows Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham (8%) in second, followed by state Treasurer Dale Folwell (7%) and Andy Wells (3%), a real estate developer and former state senator.
The key number, however, is that 49% of GOP voters say they're still undecided, according to the ECU poll. And if no candidate wins more than 30% of the total vote in a crowded primary, it goes to a runoff between only the top two finishers.
Graham and Wells are relying on their personal fortunes to boost their name recognition; Graham has been particularly aggressive in spending on television ads starting last month, in advance of the March primary. Folwell, a longtime GOP politician, is banking on his reputation as a fiscal conservative — first in the legislature, and since 2017 as the state's top financial officer — to carry him over the line.
Possibly helping Robinson, however, is the massive popularity former Republican President Donald Trump still enjoys among North Carolina conservatives. The ECU poll found the presidential primary is not nearly as close as the primary for governor, with 63% of the state's Republicans saying they want to nominate Trump for the third straight time.
Robinson and Trump are similar: Both political outsiders whose fiery rhetoric about the decline of American society has won them strong support among evangelical Christians in particular.
They've also publicly backed one another in their respective 2024 races. And it's possible that among the half of all GOP voters undecided on the governor's race, there are many who may rely on Trump's endorsement when deciding which candidate to back.
The winner of the Republican primary for governor will likely face either Attorney General Josh Stein or former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan in the general election; they're competing for the Democratic primary in a race. Stein is seen as the favorite of the party establishment.
Inflation and the economy in general are the top priorities voters of all political parties have in mind right now, the poll found, followed by abortion. The current cutoff for most abortions is 12 weeks in North Carolina — approved this year by GOP lawmakers, who said anything more would be too strict — and down from about 25 weeks when Roe v. Wade was still in place. Stein has repeatedly hammered Robinson for his views on abortion.
Robinson, who has likened abortion to murder, told WRAL in 2022 that if he became North Carolina’s top officeholder, he would support measures that outlaw abortion in all cases. He said he wants to make North Carolina the “most pro-life state in the Union” and impose “dire consequences” on doctors who unlawfully perform the medical procedure. “I don’t think abortion should ever happen,” he said. Robinson also said he likely wouldn’t obstruct a bill that allowed for abortion in cases that threatened a woman’s life or cases of rape or incest.
When Robinson announced his gubernatorial campaign in April, he called for a "heartbeat bill," which typically bans abortion after the sixth week of pregnancy. Robinson’s campaign spokesman, Mike Lonergan, told WRAL last month that the lieutenant governor would support a heartbeat bill and exemptions “for extreme situations like rape, incest, or when the life of the mother is in danger.”
