Thunder in winter: Will it snow within 7-14 days?
This past week brought multiple storms, with downed trees, flooding and even tornado warnings. These kinds of storms aren't common in the middle of January - and according to an old legend, hearing thunder in winter means snow will surely follow within 7-10 days.
Posted — UpdatedHow true is the proverb: If it thunders in winter, it will snow soon after?
You heard thunder, and a few days later, snow showed up in the forecast. Many of us here in North Carolina have experienced this and taken it as proof the old adage must have some truth to it.
To simplify, this is because storms in winter are often caused by a big dip and sudden rise in the jet stream – and that rush of cold air, along with unsettled weather patterns, means by the time the next system arrives, it could still be cold enough to cause the next system's precipitation to fall as snow, instead of rain.
How often does it snow within 10 days after thunder in winter in NC?
Since the 1940s, they found 642 instances of storms, thunder or lightning in winter. Out of those instances, they found it then snowed within 7 to 10 days around 85 times. That means since the 1940s, there's been a 13% success rate of snow falling within 7 to 10 days of storms or thunder.
So where did this folklore originate? It could be because there is some level of scientific explanation why it could snow soon after winter thunder, or because there's historically been at least a measurable chance that it will snow after a storm.
Or it could be because we believe thunder could mean snow is coming, so we pay attention – and when it works, we remember.
Remember some of North Carolina's most historic snowstorms?
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