The people paid to spot risks see high chance of ‘global catastrophe’ within 10 years

The gloomy outlook comes from an annual survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF) of people paid to identify and manage global risks.

According to the report published Wednesday, nearly two-thirds of respondents expect an “elevated chance of global catastrophes” in the next decade. About 30% expect the same in the next two years.

While the report does not define a “global catastrophe,” it describes “global risk” as an event that would “negatively impact a significant proportion of global gross domestic product, population or natural resources.”

In a statement, the WEF said its latest report “warns of a global risks landscape in which progress in human development is being chipped away slowly, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks.”

Results from the survey “highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term,” it added.

The report, which comes ahead of the WEF’s glitzy annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, next week, is based on responses from 1,490 risk experts primarily from business, but also academia, government, and civil society. The survey was launched on September 4 and closed on October 9, 2023, two days after the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel.

“World leaders must come together to address short-term crises as well as lay the groundwork for a more resilient, sustainable, inclusive future,” said WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi.

“An unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity, the worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty are causing accelerating risks… to propagate.”

Misinformation threat in huge election year

For the first time in the survey’s near-20-year history, experts identified misinformation and disinformation as the most severe risk in the next two years. That coincides with an unprecedented year for elections globally, with close to 3 billion people expected to head to the polls in 2024.

The American Psychological Association defines misinformation as “false or inaccurate information — getting the facts wrong.” Disinformation, on the other hand, “is false information which is deliberately intended to mislead.”

AI has made it much easier to spread false information in order to influence voters, including through the use of deepfakes, according to Carolina Klint, one of the report’s authors and chief commercial officer for Europe at Marsh McLennan, a professional services firm.

“There’s a fear we’ll see much more of it (this year),” she told CNN. “That could potentially (call) the elected government’s legitimacy into question, which could then in turn impact societal polarization.”

Extreme weather events were ranked the number two short-term risk, demonstrating heightened awareness about the environment and climate change in a year plagued by rising temperatures and rampant floods and wildfires. Last year was the hottest on record.

Cyber insecurity also made it into the top five short-term risks, for the first time in a decade. It ranked number four, behind societal polarization and ahead of interstate armed conflict.

AI has made the threat of cyber attacks “more immediate,” because the technology can be used by cyber criminals to complete challenging tasks such as coding, according to Klint. A “malicious actor doesn’t have to be that smart,” she said. “It’s broadened the opportunity for cyber criminals… it speeds up cyber attacks as well,” she noted, but added that, on a more positive note, AI could also help detect malicious activity.

For the third consecutive year, concerns about the environment dominate over a 10-year time horizon. The top five long-term risks comprise extreme weather events; critical change to Earth systems; biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse; natural resource shortages; and misinformation and disinformation.

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