Welter: I don't care what the analytics say, I'm taking Paolo Banchero No.1 in the NBA Draft

By Pat Welter, WRAL multimedia journalist

We all want freewill and choice, but deep down a lot of us are afraid of the pressure. We want our biggest decisions made for us.

That's a heavy way to start a NBA Draft column, but this is a heavy topic. This is the No. 1 overall pick!

On the subject of freewill it feels like I was destined to be writing this piece at this time. Some context, the first NBA jersey I ever bought was Shaq's No. 32 Orlando Magic. I was a Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania elementary kid without a NBA allegiance. My family vacationed in Orlando and Cocoa Beach, Florida every year and there was nothing I wanted more than that pinstripe jersey. I made my family take me to an Orlando mall where they only had a light blue alternate. I didn't care, we bought it and I wore it back on the Pittsburgh playground with pride.

Fast forward twenty five years and I land a sports reporter job at a television station in Orlando. First thing I do is buy a throw back pinstripe Magic jersey (Penny Hardaway this time), second thing is start covering the Orlando Magic. During my Orlando tenure the Magic made the playoffs twice only to be quickly tossed aside in the first round by the Raptors and Bucks, both of whom ended up winning NBA titles (Bucks was the next season). The Magic front office saw the writing on the wall and tore down its core. Orlando has won 43 games combined over the last two seasons and finally after a decade of bad lottery luck secured the No. 1 overall pick.

Back in September when I started working at WRAL I didn't know Orlando would win the NBA draft lottery, but it was obvious they'd be in the running. As a new reporter on the Duke beat I pulled some youtube clips of the Blue Devil's freshman class. "P-a-o-l-o B-a-n-c-h-e-r-o" I remember typing in. First thing that stood out was that the "c-h" was pronounced hard like a "K" (ironically not like Coach K), Second was Paolo Banchero was the best NBA prospect I'd seen since Kevin Durant.

I'm obviously not a scout, but you know talent when you see it. Within a few clips I was sold. This was the top pick. 6 foot 10 with the body type of a mature Lebron James and a guard-like skill set. He could dribble into a step back three. He could drive and finish at the rim and he was strong enough to overpower defenders inside. I remember texting my Orlando sports reporter friends saying "you guys better pray the Magic draft this guy Paolo Banchero."

Banchero was a NBA ready player out of high school. I didn't need to see anything more, I was convinced. I hadn't seen a prospect like him in years so what could possibly change my mind?

Season starts and the confirmation or you could argue confirmation bias began. Friday November 26th No. 5 Duke plays No.1 Gonzaga in Las Vegas. Banchero leads all scorers with 21 points and most importantly outshines Chet Holmgren.

If Banchero is love at first site, Holmgren was don't judge a book by its cover. Listed at 7 foot, 194 pounds (only after a Baconator burger and chocolate shake), Holmgren looked like an alien created in a lab sent to earth to redefine the stretch center. He could shoot the three, handle on the fast break, move without the ball, and had incredible defensive instincts.

Holmgren's odd body type and unique skill set had made him a youtube sensation long before I had heard of Banchero. I knew Holmgren was special, but when I saw him play on the same court as Banchero there really was no comparison. It felt like the whole country was watching this showcase and Banchero embraced the moment. He came out and scored 20 of his 21 points in the first half, which could have been more had cramping issues not limited his second half. Luckily Duke figured out his hydration needs as the season went along.

Holmgren did little to knock me off my Banchero position, but then came the Jabari Smith Jr. buzz. Auburn was having another great season under Bruce Pearl and it was being fueled by another 6 foot 10 uber skilled forward.

My first impressions of Smith Jr. were he was a video game create-a-player designed for the modern game. It's like you took all of his attributes and put them into the traits most valued by analytics. The height to shoot over anyone and the lateral quickness/length to be a defensive menace. The type of player who could guard any position out of the mythical switch. This draft didn't have just one generational talent, it had two, possibly three.

History tells us that not all three of these guys will hit. It's hard for any draft to live up to 2003, but I definitely see the similarities. Lebron James goes No. 1 to Cleveland, Darko Milicic goes No. 2 to Detroit, and Carmelo Anthony goes No. 3 to Denver. (SIDE NOTE: Dwyane Wade went No.5 that year, that could be Purdue's Jaden Ivey who is considered the fourth best prospect in this year's draft). What you're trying to avoid at all costs is being the team who took Milicic. You obviously want to walk away with the superstar, but your franchise depends on you not taking the bust.

To me Banchero is the safest pick of the three. I say that and it almost sounds like a knock, it's not. Banchero has massive upside and I'm not sure that's getting emphasized enough in pre-draft conversations. With Holmgren it's "what if his body develops?" With Smith Jr. "It's think of the defensive potential and what if he adds a handle?" Banchero is almost getting penalized for being the most polished of the three. Was he always engaged defensively, did he take some bad shots? Yes, but imagine if he improved in both of those areas.

"With a guy like Paolo, they are going to break him down," Duke Associate head coach Chris Carrawell said when I asked why he think's Banchero's potential isn't being discussed as much as the other top prospects.

"This guy is 19 years old man. 19. They all got flaws," Carrawell continued. "You look at Paolo and his body type, he's the most developed, physically. Really no holes in his games besides you could say the shooting, he needs to become a more consistent shooter, but these guys are not finished products, it takes time."

Carrawell wasn't buying into the Smith Jr. and Holmgren hype either, he called Banchero and Ivey the best players in the draft.

"You know I feel like I am the best player in the draft," Banchero said via an NBA zoom about Carrawell's comment. "I feel like I showed that throughout the year, I feel like I showed everything with my skill set, the intangibles. So I definitely agree with what he said."

Carrawell even compared Banchero to former Duke forward and 2017 No. 3 pick Jayson Tatum.

"Tatum, those guys can create their own shot with that size," Carrawell said. "Tatum is 6 foot 8, 6 foot 9. Palo with that size being able to create his own shot, you can post him, put him on the elbow, middle of the floor, he can get the rebound and initiate, Once that shot becomes more consistent you've got a guy who can score at all three levels. You've got to be able to guard, but you get paid for putting the ball in the hole. I just believe His game is taylor made for the NBA, it's the most complete, and if I'm drafting a guy number one overall he's got to be able to go get it."

Tatum is an interesting comparison not just because of the skill set, but because of where he went in the draft. Tatum was taken third overall by the Celtics who actually traded out of the first pick. The 76ers took Washington's Markelle Fultz first overall and the Lakers took Lonzo Ball second out of UCLA. The Celtics saw what the group think at the time did not, Tatum was and still is the best player. Scouts fell in love with Fultz's shooting ability (which disappeared due to a mysterious injury) and Ball's passing and overlooked Tatum's size and polished offensive game.

Somewhere along the way it became trendy and smart to downgrade Banchero. The analytics love Smith Jr. and Holmgren. Heaven help anyone with a basketball opinion that goes against math. Years ago I don't think this would even be a debate, Banchero would have been the unquestioned No. 1 pick, but the game has changed and the way we evaluate players has along with it. I can see why a NBA front office would want a computer to be the basis of their decision instead of their emotion or their eye. But I also see a future where kids across the country are wanting to buy Paolo Banchero pinstripe Magic jerseys when they visit Disney World. I see a star in Banchero and I wouldn't want an algorithm to take away that choice.