Upset win over Clemson would pave NC State's path to College Football Playoff: College football Week 5 games to watch

By Mark Bergin, WRAL senior multiplatform producer and Pat Welter, WRAL multimedia sports journalist

Week 5 of the 2022 college football season has many questions.

WRAL multimedia sports journalist Pat Welter and WRAL senior multiplatform producer Mark Bergin try to answer some of them.

What’s your tweet-length take ahead of Week 5 of the college football season?

Bergin: Hurricane Ian has slammed into Florida and impacted parts of the southeast, but football will be played.

Welter: NC State-Clemson in a battle of top tens, let’s just hope Hurricane Ian doesn’t wash away the opportunity.

How will the remnants of Hurricane Ian impact Saturday’s game between NC State and Clemson (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)?

Bergin: When Clemson defensive linemen K.J. Henry, Xavier Thomas and Tyler Davis announced their plans to return, it became apparent the Tigers’ 2022 defensive front would be one of the best in the country.

It’s somewhat reminiscent of the 2018 squad that had three first-round picks in Clelin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence.

If both teams struggle to throw the ball in wet and windy conditions, it will become a game won at the line of scrimmage.

NC State no longer has star offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu, who the Carolina Panthers selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Welter: I’m not the meteorologist, but football-wise NC State head coach Dave Doeren has played in games like this before.

Most notably, a 10-3 win over Notre Dame in Raleigh during Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Doeren said Monday that they prepared to never throw a pass in that game, and they are taking similar precautions for this matchup with Clemson.

Quarterback Devin Leary is the offense’s unquestioned leader and best player, but running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye has been NC State’s breakout star.

Statistically, the Wolfpack are up from 4.1 yards per carry in 2021 to 4.4 in 2022, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Sumo-Karngbaye is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and has NC State in a much better position to win a game based on the ground.

In last year’s overtime win over Clemson, NC State showed they can match the Tigers at the line of scrimmage, and that will be the key to this game once again, especially if rain takes the air out of the football.

The Wolfpack have super seniors all over the field who came back for games like this. Doeren said Monday that games like this are “why we do this.”

I don’t expect the weather to negatively affect NC State’s focus or preparation. The fear is weather-induced turnovers that you can’t control.

Other than NC State at Clemson, what is the best ACC game of the weekend?

Bergin: I’ll take No. 22 Wake Forest on the road against No. 23 Florida State (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC).

Both teams should be undefeated, but Clemson escaped last weekend with a double overtime win against Wake Forest (3-0, 0-1 ACC).

Even though Saturday’s over/under of 64.5 points looks like a high total, Wake Forest is 3-1 in hitting the over this season. Despite the loss, Demon Deacons quarterback Sam Hartman threw for 337 yards and accounted for six touchdowns.

Hartman has thrown 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has some wondering if he’ll receive consideration as a selection in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Meanwhile, Florida State (4-0, 2-0 ACC) has two strong wins outside of its home stadium: LSU in New Orleans and at Louisville.

The Seminoles’ season will likely depend on how they fare during the upcoming three-game stretch of Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson.

Welter: Personally, I’m most interested in seeing how North Carolina bounces back after a humiliating defensive performance vs. Notre Dame. The Tar Heels host Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ACC Network) after their defense got “beat down” by Notre Dame in the words of Mack Brown.

Brown described his demeanor and tone during Monday’s press conference as “passionate.” I’d call it perturbed.

Brown is clearly irked by his defense that ranks 129th out of 131 teams in yards allowed (548.7 yards per game) and 125th in points allowed (44.7 points per game).

Brown has made changes to the staff, changes to the way he practices and attempted to change the culture. I saw what looked like accountability on the Tar Heels' sidelines during the difficult moments of their 45-32 loss to the Irish, but there’s a fine line between accountability and a sideline falling apart.

At 2-2, Virginia Tech isn’t a particularly intimidating football team. The Hokies have a bottom-third offense in the ACC.

The problem is North Carolina’s defense tends to bring the best out of opposing teams. This is an opportunity for Carolina to get its confidence back. The ACC Coastal division is still very much up for grabs.

What’s the best non-ACC game of the weekend?

Bergin: Some people may point to the SEC West showdown between Alabama and Arkansas (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS). However, I’ll take the matchup of two SEC undefeated teams in No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss (noon ET Saturday, ESPN).

While both the Wildcats and Rebels are undefeated, six of the eight wins have come against non-Power Five conference teams in home games.

Plus, the Wildcats running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. is due to return after missing the first four games due to NCAA issues. Kentucky has not confirmed the reason for Rodriguez’s absence.

Last season, Rodriguez ran for 1,379 yards on 225 carries (4.7 yards per carry) and had a total of 12 touchdowns.

Saturday marks the first time Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has coached in Oxford.

Stoops enters Saturday’s game with a 0-10 record in SEC West road games.

Welter: How about No. 2 Alabama at No. 20 Arkansas? Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC) almost lost on the road at Texas this season, and this game fits the profile of another trap.

Arkansas (3-1, 1-1 SEC) has quietly become a very respectable program again.

Razorbacks QB K.J. Jefferson is the SEC’s leading rusher among quarterbacks. Dual-threat guys like him have led to Crimson Tide upsets in the past, most famously Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M.

Arkansas is coming off a painful 23-21 loss to Texas A&M where they gave up 23 consecutive points. The Razorbacks had a chance to save face with a 42-yard field goal attempt to take the lead with 1:30 remaining in the game, but the kick hit the top of the right upright.

Alabama opened as a -15 favorite in Saturday’s game, which has gone up to -17.5 points as of Wednesday morning. That line move is despite 65% of the money and tickets being on Arkansas.

So, the Razorbacks might be a square dog here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to turn on the TV Saturday afternoon and see Alabama fighting off an upset.

Predict the biggest upset this weekend in college football

Bergin: So much for Kentucky being known as a basketball school. The No. 7 Wildcats are ranked ahead of No. 14 Ole Miss. However, the Rebels are 7-point favorites for Saturday’s game.

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops gets his first SEC West road win led by quarterback Will Levis.

Welter: No. 4 Michigan played Maryland closer than expected last week in their first Big Ten contest of the year.

This week, the Wolverines go to Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City to face the Iowa Hawkeyes. This will be a battle of defenses, Iowa is giving up 5.8 points per game, while Michigan is allowing only 11.

There is plenty of motivation here for the Hawkeyes after getting trounced 42-3 in last year’s Big Ten championship game.

The question here is whether Iowa can score enough to win this game. I’ll take a chance on some Kinnick Stadium magic.

Which team will Lee Corso pick during ESPN’s “College GameDay” broadcast? Clemson or NC State?

Bergin: I’d argue Clemson should have lost on the road to Wake Forest. Plus, Corso has an affinity for Smokey, the Tennessee Volunteers’ mascot (Tennessee hosted “GameDay” on Sept. 24).

Like Smokey, I think Mr. Wuf appeals to Corso and he picks the 6.5-point road underdogs.

Welter: Corso is a crowd-pleaser and he doesn’t get many opportunities to sport Mr. Wuf. Sometimes, Corso goes against the trendy upset pick and plenty will be on NC State’s side here, but I can see him embracing the opportunity to rile up the Clemson crowd with an upset.

What will Sunday’s headline be?

Bergin: Clemson sneaks by in a wild finish over NC State.

Before last season, NC State had lost eight consecutive games to Clemson. I think the Tigers get revenge from last season.

Welter: Wolfpack weather the storm in 20-13 win over Clemson.

I’ll be on the sidelines shooting highlights for WRAL during this one. For my sake, let’s hope it’s not a downpour, but if it is, I see Ian washing away years of “NC State stuff.”

NC State has looked extremely sharp since a shaky opener at ECU. I think the Pack gets it done clearing a path for them to have a chance at the College Football Playoff.

However, several difficult tests remain on the schedule. Florida State, Syracuse, Wake Forest and the finale at UNC are all games that could trip them up.