UNC's CFP hopes remain a long shot, but Drake Maye's Heisman candidacy is up for grabs against Wake Forest
Posted November 10, 2022 5:00 a.m. EST
Week 11 of the 2022 college football season has many questions.
WRAL senior multiplatform producer Mark Bergin tries to answer some of them.
Note: The College Football Playoff rankings are used in this story.
What’s your outlandish take ahead of Week 11 of the college football season?
Does failing to appear in the SEC Championship game for the Tennessee Volunteers mean they have a better chance of making the College Football Playoff?
Am I crazy to think that because Alabama and Clemson lost, Tennessee now has an easier opportunity to make the College Football Playoff considering Georgia will likely represent the SEC East in the conference title game?
To make the SEC Championship game, Tennessee would need to win out, and Georgia would need to lose against Mississippi State and Kentucky. This outcome is unlikely.
Tennessee’s last three games are against Missouri (4-5), at South Carolina (6-3) and at Vanderbilt (3-6), three teams with a combined 5-12 SEC record.
No. 5 Tennessee is ranked ahead of No. 6 Oregon. It sets the stage for a big debate if Tennessee finishes 11-1 and Oregon finishes as a one-loss, Pac-12 champion. The Vols and Ducks both lost to Georgia, and it wasn't pretty for either of them.
Had Tennessee beaten Georgia, I’d argue the Vols’ resume would look worse if they also went on to lose to a two-loss SEC West team in the conference championship game.
Assuming Tennessee wins out, I can’t wait to hear the arguments for and against the Vols to make the CFP in the coming weeks.
What’s the best college football game of the weekend?
No. 4 TCU @ No. 18 Texas (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
Undefeated TCU faces a brutal three-game stretch to finish the regular season: At Texas, at Baylor and against Iowa State.
The big question for TCU heading into Saturday is whether star senior wide receiver Quentin Johnston will play against Texas. Johnston didn’t practice Tuesday due to an ankle injury sustained against Texas Tech.
Meanwhile, if Texas wins out, the Longhorns will play for the Big 12 Championship. The Longhorns haven’t played in a conference championship game since 2018.
Texas has always had pull in the college football landscape.
It’s no secret that there’s bad blood between TCU and Texas. It dates back to when the now-defunct Southwest Conference disbanded in the mid-1990s. When Texas joined the Big 12 in 1996, some TCU fans felt Texas excluded the Horned Frogs from the conference.
Instead, the Big 12 selected Texas Tech. TCU wouldn’t join the Big 12 until 2012.
Once again, some TCU fans feel left behind with Texas leaving for the SEC in 2024.
There’s also some crossover between the schools.
More recently, in October 2021, TCU fired Gary Patterson as its head coach. He had been the head coach since 2000 and coached there since 1998.
Patterson is now a special assistant coach at Texas under head coach Steve Sarkisian.
Under Patterson, TCU defeated Texas in seven of its last 10 matchups.
In Austin, Patterson has reunited with athletic director Chris Del Conte, who has served as the Texas AD since 2017 and as the TCU AD from 2009-2017.
Also, TCU tight end Jared Wiley is a transfer from Texas, where he played from 2019-2021.
No. 9 Alabama @ No. 11 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)
It was too hard to pick one game, so here's another showdown to watch between two SEC West teams.
Can Lane Kiffin finally knock off Nick Saban? Remember, Kiffin served as Saban’s offensive coordinator from 2014-2016.
Saban has a 29-2 record against his former assistants.
Saturday afternoon will provide a glimpse of whether ESPN radio host Paul Finebaum’s criticism of Saban is the truth or - as Kiffin puts it - “GOAT fuel.”
Kiffin believes Saban doesn’t need more motivation ahead of Saturday’s game.
Also, Kiffin apparently thinks “GOAT fuel” is the opposite of Saban's infamous “rat poison.”
It seems two-loss Alabama is out of the running for the CFP. The Crimson Tide would need complete chaos to make the CFP for the third straight season.
Heading into Saturday, Ole Miss and LSU are atop the SEC West.
What’s the best ACC game of the weekend?
No. 15 North Carolina @ Wake Forest (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2)
With a win Saturday against Wake Forest, North Carolina can clinch the Coastal Division title.
Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown is 10-3 against Wake Forest as head coach of the Tar Heels.
UNC and Wake Forest have combined to average 112.5 points in the last two meetings. The Tar Heels came away with a 59-53 win in 2020 and a 58-55 victory in 2021.
Expect a high-scoring game again considering North Carolina averages 40.6 points per game and Wake Forest averages 36.9 points per game.
Tar Heels fans won't want to hear this: This game is more important for quarterback Drake Maye’s Heisman candidacy than it is for the outside chance North Carolina sneaks its way into the College Football Playoff.
Maye has led the Tar Heels to an 8-1 record, but they have yet to play a ranked team. They aren’t scheduled to play a ranked opponent until the day after Thanksgiving in a road game against NC State.
If the Tar Heels win the ACC’s Coastal division, they’d play in the conference title game against Clemson. Presumably, the Tigers will be ranked on Dec. 3.
Regardless of which postseason bowl North Carolina ends up playing in this season, Maye has been terrific in 2022. He’s thrown for 2,964 yards, 31 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Maye is also completing 71.2% of his passes.
The redshirt freshman has led the Tar Heels’ offense, which is among the top units in college football:
- No. 3 in passing efficiency: 177.69
- No. 6 passing offense: 329.8 yards per game
- No. 6 in completion percentage: 69.7%
- No. 8 in total offense: 496.8 yards per game
- No. 9 scoring offense: 40.6 points per game
- No. 10 in fourth-down conversion rate: 72.7%
- No. 12 in third-down conversion rate: 50%
Despite a weak schedule, if Maye helps guide the Tar Heels to a one-loss season, he should receive an invite to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
More importantly for Maye, he is building himself an NFL future, perhaps as early as the 2024 draft. Also, his two top receivers this season junior Josh Downs and senior Antoine Green should receive consideration in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Downs has 63 catches for 693 yards and eight touchdowns this season. He’s building off a 2021 season where he caught 101 passes for 1,335 yards and eight touchdowns.
Some NFL scouts might see Downs' smaller stature as a detriment at 5'10", 175 pounds. However, Downs has consistently made plays in 2021 and 2022. He also plays bigger than his size.
Green has only 26 catches this season, but he has big-play ability. He has 597 yards (an average of nearly 23 yards per catch) and six touchdowns.
Green also has good size at 6'2.5" and 200 pounds.
Wake Forest (6-3, 2-3 ACC) finds itself unranked after losing consecutive road games to Louisville and NC State.
Demon Deacons quarterback Sam Hartman also likely has some sort of NFL future considering he is the active FBS leader in passing touchdowns with 96.
Which team will Lee Corso pick during ESPN’s “College GameDay” broadcast? TCU or Texas?
First off, I hope Corso is ok. He missed “GameDay” for a second consecutive week due to an illness during last Saturday’s broadcast in Athens for the Georgia-Tennessee game.
I think Corso goes with the Horned Frogs against the three-loss Longhorns.
