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Tight fight for president, Stein's lead widens in governor's race, new NC poll finds

Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Joe Biden with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earning nearly 10% of the vote, according to a new Meredith Poll. Meanwhile, unaffiliated voters are boosting Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein, who leads Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the race for governor.

Posted 2024-04-19T20:54:31+00:00 - Updated 2024-04-22T22:14:27+00:00

New poll shows dissatisfaction among independent voters

Brian Murphy

, WRAL News

North Carolina has picked the Republican candidate for president in 10 of the last 11 presidential elections, including voting for former president Donald Trump over his Democratic opponents in 2016 and 2020.

But the state’s voters have put a Democrat in the governor’s mansion in seven of the last eight elections, held at the same time as the presidential vote.

North Carolina could be headed toward a similar split in 2024, according to a new Meredith College poll released Monday. The Raleigh-based Meredith Poll found Trump with a slight edge, while Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein held a solid edge over Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the race to be the state’s next governor.

Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, has led President Joe Biden in a series of polls since the beginning of the year, including a slight edge in the Meredith Poll. Trump attended a private fundraiser in Charlotte, but canceled a public rally in Wilmington on Saturday due to inclement weather. It was his first visit to the state since easily winning the state’s primary in early March.

The Meredith Poll found Trump with 41% support and Biden with 39%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 9% of the vote. Kennedy, environmental lawyer and longtime anti-vaccine activist, plans to be on the ballot in North Carolina as the nominee of the We The People Party.

Kennedy is the son of the late United States attorney general and the nephew of former Democratic President John F. Kennedy. He has relied on his name recognition to garner support. His campaign says the party has collected and turned in more than enough signatures to be on the November ballot. The signatures haven’t been verified by county or state officials.

The Meredith Poll was conducted between April 11 and April 17 and sampled 711 registered voters for the presidential ballot question. It has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. A credibility interval is similar to a margin of error but takes into account more factors and is considered by some pollsters to be a more accurate measurement of statistical certainty.

Kennedy, according to the Meredith Poll, is doing best among voting groups that tend to back Biden or Democrats – moderate, younger, highly educated and Black voters. Kennedy is attracting 15% from self-identified moderates, 15% from voters under the age of 40, 12% from those with graduate and professional degrees and 12% from Black voters.

“In a race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump that is expected to be close, the impact of Robert F. Kennedy could affect the outcome,” Meredith Poll director David McLennan said in a statement.

At least 15 members of the Kennedy family, the most famous of Democratic political dynasties, endorsed Biden during a campaign stop last week. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s sister called Biden her “hero” and said “there are only two candidates with any chance of winning the presidency.”

The findings are consistent with other recent North Carolina polls, including from WRAL News, Mason-Dixon and Quinnipiac. Each found Trump with a small lead of six percentage points or less over Biden in head-to-head match-ups and those involving multiple candidates.

Trump carried North Carolina over Biden by less than 75,000 votes or 1.3% in 2020 in his unsuccessful reelection bid. He defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by more than 173,000 votes or 3.6% in 2016 when he successfully won the Electoral College and the White House.

Gubernatorial race

In the governor’s race, Stein leads Robinson 45% to 36%, buoyed by a big edge among unaffiliated voters, who make up the largest bloc of registered voters in North Carolina. Stein leads Robinson among women and men and among every age group in the poll.

More than 15% of those surveyed indicate that they are undecided. Stein led Robinson by four percentage points in Meredith Poll’s February survey.

“Stein’s improved position relative to Robinson may be due to several factors,” McLennan said. “Robinson continues to get negative media coverage of his statements and actions from the past. This enhanced exposure of Robinson’s extreme statements, as well as concerns that some of Robinson’s policy positions, seems to be shifting the unaffiliated voters into Stein’s camp.”

Robinson was set to appear with Trump in Wilmington, and the former president has endorsed him, comparing him favorably to Martin Luther King Jr.

In 2020, Democratic incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper won the state by nearly 250,000 votes even as Trump carried the state. It maked the second time that Cooper and Trump won the state.