SETH EFFRON: Win elections by getting fewer people to vote?

EDITOR'S NOTE: Seth Effron is opinion editor for Capitol Broadcasting Company.

Two years ago there was no Democratic Party opposition to 40% of the 30 Republicans elected to the North Carolina state Senate. There were no Democratic opponents challenging 40% of the Republicans elected the state House of Representatives.

Think about it. In a state where Democratic and Republican voters are nearly evenly split, 40 of the 101 Republicans elected to the state legislature lacked any major party opposition in 2022. That same election, 8 Democrats ran without GOP opposition to the state House and a single Democratic state Senate candidate didn’t have any Republican opposition.

There’s been something of a turnaround for the 2024 elections with more contested legislative races, but extensive racial and partisan gerrymandering may likely blunt the impact of the increased competition.

Democrats launched a major effort to make 2024 legislative races more competitive. Not a single Republican running for the state Senate lacks a Democratic opponent. In the state House, just two Republicans lack Democratic challengers.

Curiously, however, Republicans are giving Democrats a free ride in 8 state Senate races and in 24 state House races. Two years ago, Democrats got free rides in just a single state Senate race and in only 8 state House races.

What gives?

First, newly drawn heavily gerrymandered legislative and congressional districts adopted late in the fall and now being contested in state and federal courts. For most districts, elections will be a mere formality anointing predetermined partisan winners.

Most dramatically, the currently evenly split congressional delegation of 7 Republicans and 7 Democrats will likely shift to at least 11 Republicans and 3 Democrats. Democrats didn’t even bother to field opponents in the newly-drawn 3rd and 6th Congressional Districts. Unless there’s some intervention by the courts, incumbent Republican Greg Murphy in the 3rd District and one of the six Republicans seeking the nomination in the 6th District, will be elected without opposition.

But it is the impact the uncontested local races might have on statewide contests that might be most significant.

Two years ago, Republican Ted Budd edged Democrat Cheri Beasley in the statewide race for U.S. Senate. The margin was 45 votes per precinct.

Voter turnout is crucial. Moves or strategies to increase or decrease the likelihood of certain blocks of voters to show up at the polls can determine election winners and losers.

Beasley was the first African-American woman to serve as chief justice of the state’s Supreme Court.

Local election contests often are the greatest motivator for voters to get to the polling place. When local candidates lack opposition they are, obviously, less likely to see the need to aggressively campaign to get out the vote.

Two years ago, the Democrats who got a free ride in legislative races were largely from districts where White voters were in the minority. White voters are in the minority in 5 of the 8 Senate districts where Democrats have a free ride. In half of the House districts where Democrats face GOP opposition, White voters are a minority.

Will that potential dampening of voter enthusiasm – because of uncontested local races – aid Republicans in statewide races?

Could uncontested Republicans in two congressional districts diminish engagement among significant blocks of GOP voters?

What seems most certain now is the voice of voters – which should be determinate -- won’t matter much.

Elections to the state House of Representatives and Senate are, with the exception of a few contested primaries, predetermined because of hyper-gerrymandering. Are those free elections, as North Carolina’s Constitution demands and state Supreme Court Justice Paul Newby says he stands by?

Whether there will be any changes in that also aren’t up to voters right now – but in the hands of state and federal judges – who must decide if the voters or self-interested legislators determine the outcome of elections.

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