Plenty of legislative, congressional turnover coming to NC in 2024
The 2024 elections are shaping up to be a big year for turnover in North Carolina's legislature and Congressional delegation.
At least four out of the state's 14 Congressional seats – more than one-quarter – won't have incumbents running for them in 2024.
North Carolina is accustomed to a lot of turnover in those offices, thanks in part to nearly-constant redistricting in recent years. The state is on its fourth congressional map in four election cycles.
Democrats Jeff Jackson and Kathy Manning have said they aren’t running again. That’s after state lawmakers redrew both of their districts this year to strongly favor Republicans. Jackson is running for state Attorney General, and Manning hasn’t said whether she’ll seek another office.
Democrat Wiley Nickel’s district in the southern Triangle was also redrawn to be strongly Republican, but he has not said yet whether he will seek reelection.
Among Republicans, Dan Bishop and Patrick McHenry have said they won’t seek another term. Bishop is running for attorney general against Jackson.
McHenry’s announcement came as a surprise. He’s served for 18 years, and had previously said he would run again.
Meredith college political science chair David McLennan says it’s likely related to the ouster of his friend, former U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
"Congress is not what it was when [McHenry] entered there. And I think it's a build-up of frustration, and also just anger at the way his closest ally got treated as Speaker," McLennan said. "I think you're seeing that around the country, a lot of frustration that Congress is not a functioning body right now."
McLennan says the constant churn in the state's Congressional delegation is not in voters’ best interests, because it takes time for members to rise through the ranks in Congress.
"We lose a lot of seniority, which means we lose a lot of power, which ultimately could translate to legislation that doesn't benefit North Carolina," McLennan said.
Ten percent of legislative seats – 17 out of 170 – won't have incumbents running in them, either. Halfway through the filing period, a total of 17 state lawmakers have said they’re stepping down after 2024.
Seven are running for higher office. House Speaker Tim Moore, R-Cleveland, Rep. John Bradford, R-Mecklenburg, and Rep. Caleb Rudow, D-Buncombe, are running for Congress.
Rep. Jon Hardister, R-Guilford, is running for state labor commissioner, and Rep. Wesley Harris, D-Mecklenburg, is running for state treasurer. Rep. Jeffrey Elmore, R-Wilkes, and Sen. Rachel Hunt, D-Mecklenburg, are both running for lieutenant governor.
"It's an unusual year for departures – more than you would anticipate," McLennan said, adding that the number of vacancies on the Council of State is likely one of the reasons.
Another 10 lawmakers, five from each party, have said they’re retiring, That includes longtime Wake County Democrat Rosa Gill, Cumberland County Democrat Marvin Lucas, Guilford Republican John Faircloth and Forsyth Republican Joyce Krawiec. But several others haven’t served very long.
McLennan says the low pay for most lawmakers and the increasingly lengthy sessions are making it tough for anyone except wealthy retirees to serve in the General Assembly.
"For anybody who's working or has a family or anything like that, it's a very big burden to carry," he said. "The fact that we went through mid-fall before we got a budget – it's very difficult for individuals to maintain that kind of lifestyle."
The filing period continues until noon on Dec. 15, so it's possible more incumbents could yet announce they're stepping down, too.
