Average number of Atlantic hurricanes grows, 2021 could be another active season
Although predictions for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season are still a month away, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said the average number of storms has increased.
NOAA said Friday that the new 30-year average, spanning from 1991 to 2020, has increased from 12 named storms to 14. The number of hurricanes has increased from six to seven, and the average number of major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) remains the same at three.
According to NOAA, a new average is recorded every decade.
Matt Rosencrans, a seasonal forecaster at NOAA says, “These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons.”
Last year, we had a record-setting year with 30 named storms, digging deep into the Greek alphabet with the final named storm of Iota. NOAA has decided to no longer use the Greek names and now has a secondary list of names if and when we get another active season.
The previous record of 28 storms was set in 2005, according to NOAA.
The increase in the averages may be attributed to the overall improvement of observations, including the newest satellites from NOAA and continued hurricane reconnaissance. It may also be due to climate change. As ocean temperatures and the environment continue to warm, there is more fuel for storms to develop.
On Thursday, Colorado State University released its 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, predicting another above-average season this year.
CSU is calling for 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Each of these numbers is above the typical average. If that holds true, 2021 could be the sixth consecutive above-average season.
