Latest indictment unlikely to hurt Trump with GOP base in NC, experts say

Federal charges unsealed this week against former president Donald Trump have been described as the most momentous in the political history of the United States. But how much will they matter in the upcoming Republican presidential primary?

Top North Carolina political scientists say probably not much at all.

Trump was indicted on felony charges Tuesday for his role in an effort to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the run-up to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters — the latest in a string of cases resulting in charges against the former president.

Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer said he was surprised by the level of chronological detail in the latest indictment, which he called “a pretty damning document.”

Chris Cooper, political science and public affairs professor at Western Carolina University, added: “If you leave reading that [indictment] anything other than with your jaw on the floor, you're not paying attention.”

But Cooper and Bitzer doubt it’ll have any impact on the GOP primary.

“These indictments have only strengthened his standing within the Republican Party,” Bitzer said. “I think the narrative that [Trump] and his campaign have made is that this is a political witch hunt in these indictments certainly resonates with his core support.”

Cooper noted that another indictment of Trump is expected to be unveiled soon in Georgia, but doubts that one will matter much to the base, either.

“I find it hard to believe that there was any Trump supporter that said, ‘You know, the indictments up to this point I didn't care about, but this is the one that puts me over the top,’” Cooper said. “We already know his role in Jan. 6. His supporters, I think, are going to stick behind him.”

Endorsement race

Two top North Carolina Republicans have already endorsed the former president’s 2024 bid to return to the White House. U.S. Sen. Ted Budd, who benefited from Trump’s vocal support in the 2022 GOP primary, endorsed him earlier in the year.

Budd spokesman Curtis Kalin told WRAL News the senator is standing behind his endorsement.

In a tweet Tuesday, Budd blamed President Biden for the indictments. “Again and again, the Biden administration has weaponized the justice system to target his chief political opponent. Joe Biden’s continued abuse of power must be confronted by Congress and his administration must be held accountable,” Budd tweeted.

North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who is a GOP gubernatorial hopeful, endorsed Trump in June at the Faith and Freedom conference. His campaign declined to comment on whether he’s standing behind his endorsement. Trump has said he would endorse Robinson in the 2024 gubernatorial race.

Bitzer called Robinson’s silence “interesting.”

“He will be the number-two race behind the presidential race here in North Carolina,” Bitzer said. “The down-ballot effect these indictments and potentially the pending trials will have is anybody's guess. But it can't be something that down-ballot Republicans want to have in terms of baggage going into next year's general campaign.”

Cooper was surprised, too, but chalked it up to careful handling by Robinson’s campaign.

“Robinson has a tendency to eventually let the truth come out and say what he believes. He doesn't stay mum for long,” Cooper noted, “so we'll see if he says something different.”

The North Carolina Republican Party declined to comment on the indictment.

Effect on the general election

If Trump wins the GOP primary, which polls indicate he’s currently positioned to do, the country could face the prospect of an election season in which one major party’s nominee is tried for — and potentially found guilty of — felony crimes.

Bitzer isn’t sure what that would mean for the outcome of the race.

“As much as Donald Trump has broken the unwritten rules of American politics, this is just one more example,” Bitzer said. “I think it's anybody's guess, really. We don't have anything to compare this to.”

Cooper is surprised Trump’s GOP rivals haven’t capitalized more on the criminal charges he faces. Except for some mild criticism from former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Trump’s rivals have largely avoided calling him out on the indictment.

“I'm still a little puzzled that more haven't come out and said, ‘Enough is enough,’” Cooper said. “I find it to be a surprise how Ron DeSantis, for example, thinks that there's a path to victory by being on Trump's side, but still asking for a vote against Trump. I just don't quite get that logic.”

But he thinks it could make a difference in the general election in November.

“I do think that there are some number of voters who may like Donald Trump's policies, may like conservative policies, may like Republican policies, but are just kind of done,” Cooper said. “Whether they're going to go ahead and vote for Joe Biden, I don't know, or whether they actually skip the top of the ticket.”

Or, Cooper added, those voters could just choose to stay home.