2023-24 NC snow outlook: A colder winter and good news for snow lovers
As the weather cools each year, the WRAL Severe Weather team makes predictions for the coming season. How much snow will we see? How cold will the winter be?
For the winter of 2023-24, the news is good for snow lovers.
This winter, for the first time in four years, we are in an El Niño pattern.
How much snow will NC get this year?
A La Niña pattern was dominant in 2020, 2021 and 2022. That changes with the winter of 23-24, said WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell.
El Niño is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures.
"During an El Niño, the northern branch of the jet stream stays mostly up in Canada, keeping the coldest air north of us," WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth explained. "Meanwhile, we have an active subtropical jet stream over the southern United States. It’s fueled by warm, moist air over the Pacific, so we expect some drought-busting precipitation over the southern half of the country."
Whether an El Niño is weak or strong can be determined by looking at a three-month average of the ocean’s surface temperatures. An index of 1.5 to 2 degrees is considered strong, and anything over 2 degrees is very strong, according to WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner.
The winter of 2023-24 "will likely fall in the strong category, and a strong El Niño often brings more snow," Gardner said. "That's good news for snow lovers."
Since NOAA expects a strong El Niño this winter, the WRAL Severe Weather Center compared previous strong El Niño years and their impact on winter weather in the Triangle.
Since 1957, the Triangle has only had six winters with a strong El Niño:
- 1957-1958
- 1965-1966
- 1972-1973
- 1987-1988
- 1991-1992
- 2009-2010
Five of those years featured snow totals of seven inches or higher. The most recent strong El Niño year was in 2010, when we had 7.2 inches of snow.
Of course, temperatures also play a crucial role in when or if we get any snow.
Looking back at the six strong El Niño years, temperatures in December ran slightly above normal. Temperatures during January and February ran slightly below normal.
2023-24 NC snow outlook
So, what do we predict for the 2023-2024 winter months? It’s looking pretty good for snow lovers! WRAL meteorologists are predicting temperatures slightly below normal this winter.
Could those colder temperatures lead to some snow? The answer is yes!
The average winter snowfall at Raleigh-Durham International Airport is 5.2 inches. We're expecting to get more this year.
"Based on the historical data, the fact that we likely have an active subtropical jet stream and a slightly cooler than normal winter, the WRAL forecast calls for slightly above normal snowfall," WRAL meteorologist Mike Maze said. "We are going with 5 to 7 inches of snow – with most of the snow likely in January."
Mike Maze takes your questions and breaks down the 2023 winter weather outlook.
Here's a look at some of North Carolina's biggest recent snowfalls.
Check out these helpful links to be ready when snow arrives:
