How likely is a white Christmas? When was the last time Raleigh saw a white Christmas?

Many North Carolinians are hoping for a small taste of a white Christmas this year – but the odds are stacked against us.

So when was the last time the Triangle saw a white Christmas? And how often does it happen?

The last time we had a true white Christmas in Raleigh was 88 years ago in 1935. We had 4.6 inches of snow in Raleigh on Christmas Day that year. The last time we had snow officially on Christmas Day was in 2010. We had 0.4 inches of snow shortly before midnight, so it wasn't a true white Christmas. The very next day we had 6.7 inches of snow at RDU.

The National Weather Service tracked when the Triangle has had a White Christmas in the last 70 years – and snow on Christmas in the Triangle is shockingly rare. We've only had a white Christmas twice in 70 years.

The white Christmas of 2010 brought a foot of snow to parts of the Triangle

WRAL coverage from 2010 brings back memories of a very snowy holiday. Mother Nature dropped up to 12 inches of snow in parts of the Triangle and central North Carolina.

On Christmas night in 2010, some recall staying up late, waiting to see if the flakes would begin falling before midnight, allowing the holiday to truly be considered a white Christmas. While there was no snow on the ground on Christmas itself, the flakes did begin falling before the clock struck midnight – making Christmas 2010 officially considered a white Christmas.

The snow then continued falling, creating a wonderland that lasted several days.

Hundreds of people sent in photos of winter wonderlands and children and pets at play in the heavy blanket of snow -- allowing us a peek back in time at a snow day and white Christmas from more than a decade ago.

The white Christmas of 1966 brought 1 to 3 inches of snow

The white Christmas of 1966 didn't dump nearly as much snow as in 2010, it did have the benefit of actually having snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

A newspaper photo showed a cab driver rigging his vehicle for driving through the Capital City in the snow. Another photo showed a 9-year-old boy riding a toboggan on Bedford Ave. near the modern day Raleigh Rose Garden.

Much of Raleigh, the newspaper said, got around an inch of snow, creating a white blanket just in time for Christmas.

However, other than these two memorable occurrences, the rest of the 68 years had no snow on the ground or no new snow during Christmas.

Never more than a trace of Christmas snow since the 1800s

If we define White Christmas as the occurrence or accumulation of measurable snowfall on December 25 at the official observing site for Raleigh, we find that there has never been more than a trace of snow recorded on that date since reliable records began in the late 1800s.

There have been several times when snow flurries occurred on Christmas Day, but failed to reach a measurable threshold.

According to a public information statement from the National Weather Service office in Raleigh, trace amounts of snow on Christmas were also noted in 1897, 1899, 1915, 1947, 1953, 1970, 1981, 1993, 1998 and 1999.

We have also had a couple of icy holidays, with sleet and freezing rain reported in 1962 and a leftover icy glaze in 1998.

There have also been a very few situations in which there was previously accumulated snow remaining on the ground for Christmas Day. This occurred in 1930, 1935, 1966 and 1967, with 1966 being the last time at least an inch of snow remained in place at the official observing site. There have been a few close calls too, with notable snow just after Christmas in 1892, and melting by Christmas Eve in 1993.

Will it snow this Christmas?

The odds of a white Christmas in Raleigh this year are only 2%.

Temperatures will be in the 50s on Christmas Day, and there's no rain in the forecast. It would take a true Christmas miracle for us to see snow on Christmas Day.

For now, it looks like we'll have to keep dreaming of a white Christmas...

More Raleigh Christmas memories – and mysteries

Christmas is full of stories and mysteries from the days of yore. Do you know the secret behind the 'little' Christmas tree hanging over a Raleigh highway? Have you seen the mysterious remnant of a 1960s Christmas village? Hear about these Christmas mysteries on our holiday-themed podcast!