Duke, Michigan State will be more about point guards than history
Posted March 31, 2019 11:25 a.m. EDT
One win, 11 losses.
It's a pretty stark record for one really good coach against another one, and yet it's what stares Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo in the face when he looks at his next opponent, Duke and head coach Mike Krzyzewski.
"Hell, not many guys outside of their league are playing them 11 times. I figure that we've played them a lot. Played them down there (in Durham) a lot. Played them in different events and we've knocked on the door," Izzo said. "It hasn't opened yet. One of these days it's going to open."
The Blue Devils have won seven in a row in the series since losing in the same round of the NCAA Tournament to Michigan State back in 2005. One reason the head-to-head record stands out so much is that this is the two teams' eighth meeting in the last nine seasons.
The 1-11 record would seem to indicate a level of dominance, though, that often hasn't been there - at least, not in margin of victory. Since 2003, Duke is 9-1 against the Spartans and just two of those have been by 20 or more points. All the other wins have been by 10 points or less and four by seven points or less. Duke won by 20 in the last meeting in the NCAA Tournament - the Final Four in Indianapolis - but that's the only real blowout since 2003.
Krzyzewski, though, doesn't put much stock in it.
"I'm not a big believer in coaches' records against one another. It's not like you have the same team, the same circumstance; somebody might have been injured. It's a time where your team wasn't functioning as well. Just like I'm not a big guy on records on Tuesdays or Fridays or Saturdays or whatever," Krzyzewski said. "You play the team that you're going to play against right now. And they're capable of handing us a defeat. It doesn't make any difference what's happened in the past, really."
For Izzo, though, the record against Krzyzewski - a good friend - is less about the numbers and more about what he wants his program to be.
Izzo has seven Final Fours and 600 wins, but he has just one national title. He wants more.
"You always keep an eye on the programs - and I think everybody does this in life - that have been successful. You try to figure out how do they do it, and then how do you beat them," Izzo said. "And I figured out a little bit how they've done it. I haven't figured out as well how to beat them. I'm still working on that. And that's why we're still a work in progress."
Krzyzewski was right about one thing, though - once the ball is tipped, it will be about Michigan State against Duke - this year's version of each.
And it won't matter how many close games Duke has won, or how lucky Duke has been in its last two games.
Injuries have been a storyline for both teams this season, and while Duke has had players in and out of its lineup all year, Michigan State has lost two (seemingly) for the year - junior Josh Langford, who had scored in double figures every full game he played in before suffering a stress fracture in his left foot in late December, and Kyle Ahrens, a reserve who dealt with a back injury and how has a sprained ankle.
Now, junior Nick Ward is dealing with a hand injury suffered against LSU that is on the same hand he broke last month.
"Nothing is going to keep me off the court tomorrow," Ward said. "My first thought when I landed on the hand was just make sure everything's all right. My trainers, Nick and doc took me back and made sure everything was cool and everything looks good. So basically this morning it was sore. It was sore. But I expected that. It's more a day-by-day type feel."
The Spartans played just seven players more than one minute against LSU, so that would obviously impact their rotation if Ward couldn't go.
For Duke, the Blue Devils have had players be unexpected scratches either shortly before or shortly after the games have begun several times this year - and Cam Reddish was yet another one against Virginia Tech.
"He's had a little bit of problem with his knee. It's not structural -- nothing structural, and a jumper's knee, a tendonitis," Krzyzewski said. "I guess there are a number of different things. At different times it can inhibit you, or you feel pretty good and then you can play, or you can work yourself through it. But yesterday we weren't able to do that."
Krzyzewski said that he will be a game-time decision.
But it was yet another time Duke had to adjust on the fly.
"Definitely missing Cam out there. It's tough to have a game plan and then couple minutes before tip-off see that he's out. But we've gone through so much adversity that we were able to step up last night," teammate R.J. Barrett said. "And just moving forward, whether he plays or he doesn't, we're going to have to give everything we've got."
Duke being without Zion has obviously been a big storyline nationally; he was out for five games, and Duke went 3-2 without him. Duke lost another game to Syracuse without Tre Jones and Reddish.
But Izzo - who was not happy when his Spartans did not earn a No. 1 seed in spite of winning the Big 10 - feels like his team has overcome some similar hurdles.
"I think we've won more Quad 1 wins than anybody in the country. We've not lucked out to get here. We've earned our way here and we've earned our way here through some injuries," Izzo said.
"Yes, they've had Zion and I don't have a player like that. But I've had four or five that have been injured and we've kind of had to regroup. And I think we grew from that.
"I've had some knock-down, drag-out teams that maybe weren't as mentally comfortable with where they are. And I think all the adversity we've gone through has made us maybe more mentally tough than physically tough."
According to statistician Ken Pomeroy, this game will match the No. 5 most efficient offense in the country (Michigan State's) with the No. 7 defense (Duke) and the No. 7 offense (Duke's) with the No. 9 defense (Michigan State). So, pretty even on paper.
The Spartans shoot well from beyond the arc, making 38.2% of their shots, and from inside the arc - 54.9% from 2. They are also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, as per usual with an Izzo team (Duke ranks slightly higher in that category, though). Michigan State leads the country in percentage of made field goals that are assisted (67.3%).
Duke is just 329th nationally in 3-point shooting (30.7%), but the Blue Devils have actually shot 24 of 64 (37.5%) in the NCAA Tournament so far.
The Blue Devils shot just 30% from 3 against Virginia Tech, but the bigger key was who made them - Tre Jones was 5 of 7 from 3, after having gone 5 from 25 from beyond the arc in Duke's previous five games combined and being the guy opponents were willing to leave open.
But Jones also had eight assists to no turnovers against the Hokies, and he's always been known as one of the best defenders in college basketball.
Which is why his matchup with Big 10 Player of the Year Cassius Winston is perhaps the biggest one in this game.
"He has an extremely high IQ. He's a really good point guard, lead guard for them. He has the ball a lot for them. He's a playmaker," Jones said of Winston. "He makes all the decisions for them. So (I'm) just going to try to make the game as tough as I can on him."
The respect was mutual.
"He's a really, really good player for that team. He does almost all the little things," Winston said. "They've got lots of talented players, a lot of dudes that got a lot of credit and things like that. But he holds them together. He makes big plays for them. He's a really good defender. He's a key, key part of that team."
Winston averages 18.8 points for the Spartans and 7.5 assists, shooting nearly 52% from 2 and over 40% from 3.
But the NCAA Tournament is all about guard play, and while Jones isn't going to be the player Duke runs its offense through, he will be the one who runs the offense. And he will at times be called upon to make plays.
Elite Duke teams have all had point guards like that. It's what sets this team apart from some of Krzyzewski's recent teams.
"(Jones is) somebody we haven't had for a while in that he does - basically Winston does this for Tom - he can make in-game adjustments that the coach would want to make while the game is going on," Krzyzewski said.
"They just understand the game and they understand their team and their coaching staff where they can make real time adjustments. And it's a huge advantage. It's a huge advantage. And Michigan State has it with Winston, and we have it with Tre."
And then there's the question of will Michigan State stop Zion Williamson? The Spartans have just a few players in the rotation that are taller than 6-7, although they do have more size on the perimeter than most teams. Williamson is going to be a handful.
"He's not Superman, but he's damn close."
It won't be easy for Duke without Reddish, if he's not able to go. It won't be easy for Michigan State no matter who is able to go. But Izzo thinks his team is ready.
"Duke is, as you say, everybody's favorite. And they've been the number one No. 1. So it's our chance to go against the best and I think we're looking forward to that," Izzo said.
"To be the best, you've got to beat the best."
