Slowing vaccination rates make herd immunity less likely
Even as more people become vaccinated against coronavirus every day, the goal of herd immunity appears to be fading into the distance in the U.S. and in North Carolina.
With herd immunity, enough people have been immunized against coronavirus through either antibodies following a previous exposure or vaccination to make it difficult for the virus to spread. Experts have put the immunization level needed to reach herd immunity at 70 to 85 percent of the population.
Nationwide, about 10 percent of the population has been infected, and about 30 percent is fully vaccinated against the virus. In North Carolina, about 9 percent has been infected, and about 33 percent has been vaccinated.
Coronavirus vaccinations in NC
But after weeks when people were scrambling to get an available vaccination appointment, vaccination rates are starting to drag both in North Carolina and nationwide. North Carolina's percentage of fully vaccinated adults has crept up by only a percentage point or so each week recently.
"It’s just really slowed down," said Andrew Blum, a pharmacist at Eastern Carolina Medical Center in Benson, where thousands of doses of the Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson vaccines sit in a freezer and refrigerator.
"We have open clinics all day, from 9 to 6. Anybody can walk in and get a COVID shot with no appointment, and we maybe have 10 people each day," Blum said.
Meanwhile, infections are starting to tick up again.
According to the state Department of Health and Human Services' latest county alert system, 34 of North Carolina's 100 counties are reporting a higher level of viral spread than they did earlier in April.
There are now 30 "orange zone" counties, with substantial spread, up from 20; 56 "yellow zone" counties, with significant spread, up from 48; and only 14 counties in light yellow on the map, with moderate spread, down from 30. While the map no longer shows the lone "red zone" county, with critical viral spread, from early April, it also gave up it's single "green zone" county, with low levels of spread.
"If we don't reach herd immunity, then it may prolong us opening all the way buck up. People ask me, 'When are we getting rid of the mask?' The longer that it takes to reach herd immunity, unfortunately, more people are going to die from COVID," said Dr. Robin Peace, the president of medical staff at Southeastern Health.
Cary resident Danielle Raneri said she's skeptical about getting the vaccine.
"No, I'm not going to take it," said Raneri. "We don't know a lot. It keeps changing every day. The CDC keeps changing ... everybody keeps changing what they're saying."
Raneri said she won't be vaccinating her children, either.
"We don't know the long-term effects. We do know enough a year into this that children are barely affected. If they do get it, they get a mild cold," she said.
Raneri added that she would be willing to receive a vaccine in a few years.
"When it was actually tested out, and I could really see people who chose to be in the trial, and I could see that it didn't harm them, and I could see that there were true studies about fertility," she said.
Michelle Duarte, another Cary resident, said she's concerned about the effect of the vaccine on expecting mothers.
"We don't know the post-data of what this vaccine is actually going to do to unborn children," said Duarte.
Shannon Austin, who works at Eastern Carolina Medical Center, is now pleading with people to get vaccinated after her mother put off getting a shot and eventually died of the virus.
Diane Byrd, 69, had made it through the pandemic for over a year without contracting COVID-19, despite working the entire time at a local market she owned. Austin said Byrd was hesitant to get the vaccine because it was so new and she feared side-effects.
"'It's not been tested enough' is what she thought," Austin said.
Once her mother fell ill, however, she changed her attitude about wanting to get vaccinated.
"'Once you get better,' I said, 'would you be willing to get the vaccine?’" Austin recalled the conversation with her mother. "She said, 'Absolutely.' So, if she had her time back, she would’ve gotten it."
Byrd died April 16.
"I have never heard of any side-effects that were as bad, even close to as bad, as to what I saw my momma go through," Austin said.
In Johnston County, only 25 percent of adults have been vaccinated.
"We have to prevent this disease from taking any more lives," she said, noting that she shared her mother's story so people are aware of the risks of not getting vaccinated.
"She might not have been saved by the vaccine, or she may have," she said. "We’ll never know."
