Brownlow's GIFs: We don't talk about Carolina-Duke in the Final Four

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

I realize that by definition, my headline is paradoxical. I am encouraging everyone to not talk about the thing that lots of people are indeed talking about as a possibility. And I get it — what Carolina did at Cameron earlier this year was unprecedented and wild, so anything feels possible, right?

Carolina and Duke were a game away from meeting in 1991 in the national title game, but Roy Williams at Kansas took that chance away. Since then, Duke has been in seven Final Fours and Carolina has been in 10. They have been in the same Final Four exactly zero times in that span. Here's what's wild too: from 1992-01, either Duke or Carolina was in the Final Four EVERY YEAR except one (1996). Since 2001, there have been 11 Final Fours played without either team and 10 played with one of them. But. Never. Both.

I'm not saying it's impossible. Obviously, it's quite possible. But both have tough roads to get there, and we've been significantly closer and with better odds and it still hasn't happened. So let's all slow our roll a bit, OK? Both UNC and Duke will have very tough games to even get to their respective Elite Eights, much less a Final Four.

So let's get to the GIFs!

THURSDAY

NO. 2 DUKE (30-6) VS. NO. 3 TEXAS TECH (27-9)

Time: 9:39 p.m.
TV: CBS

#ANALYSIS

I know some people have had Texas Tech beating Duke in their bracket all season and some may even stand by that now. Here's my issue with Texas Tech: they held Notre Dame to 33.3% shooting from 2, 32.1% shooting from 3, forced them into 11 turnovers and .... won by six? That should you mean you won by 26, right? Well, Texas Tech shot 38.6% from 2 and 26.7% from 3, so yeah.

Four of Duke's six losses this year are to teams that are in the top 20 in Ken Pom's offensive efficiency. Two that aren't? Virginia and Florida State, two teams that earned their bad rankings but were playing better offensively at the time they played Duke.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, has lost five times this season in spite of holding an opponent to one of their 10 worst offensive performances of the season. And that's because Texas Tech was usually horrendous on offense in a way that couldn't be offset by its excellent defense. Now, don't get me wrong: Texas Tech has won some games in spite of struggling some on defense because it has played well offensively, too. And so that's where Duke's defense becomes the biggest factor in this game.

Defending Texas Tech will be nothing like defending Michigan State. Does Duke get a little more aggressive since Texas Tech is so turnover-prone? Perhaps, and that could pay dividends and turn defense into easy offense on the other end when it'll be harder to score against a set defense. If Duke brings the defensive energy it brought to the final four minutes of the Michigan State game, it will be fine. If it brings the same defensive energy it had been bringing prior to that point, it will not be fine.

The other thing to watch? Texas Tech is small. Kevin Obanor plays the bulk of their minutes at center, and he's 6-8. A 6-11 freshman, Daniel Batcho, sees some time but it's mostly Obanor and 6-7 senior Marcus Santos-Silva. But Texas Tech is oddly big as well, which I know doesn't make sense but bear with me: their starting 5 runs 6-5, 6-6, 6-6, 6-8 and 6-8. Jeremy Roach, who has played so well, might have his work cut out for him with that kind of size guarding him. Or maybe he won't, considering how well he's played. But with Duke's twin towers down low, the Blue Devils will have to exploit their advantages inside as best they can.

NAMES TO KNOW

Paolo Banchero. Banchero has really found another gear in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 18 points on 15 of 28 shooting and adding 8.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.5 blocks. He's also hit 4 of his last 9 from 3 after a stretch where he hit just 1 of 11. He's such a smart and unselfish player that there are times he flirts with takeover mode and just can't let himself get there, instead wanting to make the smart pass to a teammate even if he knows he can win his matchup. If he goes into takeover mode and it's all clicking, though, he is capable of carrying Duke into the next round. He just can't let himself get frustrated and in his own head.

Bryson Williams. The UTEP transfer forward averaged 17 points during two NCAA Tournament games on 14 of 20 shooting. He's the Red Raiders' leading scorer, and he's earned Ken Pom MVP honors in two of Texas Tech's biggest wins this season (over Baylor and Kansas). So he clearly enjoys the bright lights. But he's going to have his work cut out for him on both ends of the floor with Duke's inside game. Williams has fouled out in three of Texas Tech's losses and hasn't fouled out in any of their wins. He's going to have to figure out a way to guard Banchero without getting into foul trouble.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

PREDICTION

Duke, 73-66. Does Texas Tech make Duke sweat? Maybe. Does Duke win anyway? I think so.

NO. 8 NORTH CAROLINA (26-9) VS. NO. 4 UCLA (27-7)

Time: 9:39 p.m.
TV: CBS

#ANALYSIS

We were supposed to get this game back in December, but UNC got an extra helping of Kentucky that it didn't ask for instead. One thing these two teams have in common? You can more or less throw the past away right now. UCLA has plenty of Tournament experience, and it has shown so far in this event even if the Bruins at times weren't quite the team we thought they'd be after last year. It doesn't matter because we know they might be becoming that team right now. And UNC seemingly has morphed into the team many thought it could be all year, finding itself and feeling as confident as ever. UCLA is as balanced a team as Carolina has seen all year, ranking 12th in offensive efficiency and in defensive efficiency.

Carolina went 10-8 against teams ranked 150th or better in 3-point shooting and 16-1 against everyone ranked worse than that. One of those wins was against Baylor, of course, but UCLA ranks 76th. Now a lot of those losses came before we saw the UNC we see today, but the point is that a team has to be able to make 3-pointers to beat UNC. And UNC will have to guard well. UNC went 6-6 against the country's top 19 offenses this year and UCLA ranks 12th. Of course, again, UNC beat Baylor, which ranks above UCLA, just last week, so we know that they can. Interestingly, though, UNC was 8-7 against the top 100 teams in 2-point shooting and UCLA ranks 188th.

Carolina is going to execute as well, though. UCLA might be known for its offense, but the defense is what got it here and what will get it further. The Bruins are 77th nationally in 2-point defense and 87th in 3-point defense. UNC is 2-4 against teams ranked higher than UCLA in 2-point defense and 4-4 against teams ranked higher in 3-point defense. UCLA, though, is 2-1 against teams ranked higher than UNC in 3-point shooting and 5-5 against teams that rank higher in 2-point shooting. And the Bruins are 2-3 against teams ranked higher in offensive efficiency than the Tar Heels.

Carolina will absolutely have to win the battle of the boards as well. UCLA is 56th nationally in defensive rebounding and 65th in offensive rebounding. UNC is 89th in offensive rebounding but has been surging there recently, and the Tar Heels are second nationally in defensive rebounding. UCLA is likely going to do all it can to slow the game down and limit Carolina to one shot. Even if UNC can't get its own rebounds, it has to make sure UCLA doesn't get second chances, especially if the Bruins milk the shot clock.

NAMES TO KNOW

Armando Bacot. A game like this is tricky for the Tar Heels' more traditional back-to-the-basket big man. He's obviously been Carolina's best and most consistent player all season. But UCLA can go small from time to time, sometimes even using the 6-7 Jaime Jaquez as their 5-man (we'll get to him in a minute). The Bruins have a few big bodies — the 6-9 Cody Riley can block some shots and pick up some fouls in addition to score, while 6-10 Myles Johnson sees some time as well and ranks 52nd nationally in block percentage. But if UCLA goes small and tries to draw Bacot away from the basket, it's going to be tricky. And Bacot has to do all he can to avoid foul trouble. He's picked up at least four fouls in six of UNC's losses and three or more in eight of them. He has to stay out of foul trouble. But against Baylor, Bacot stood in against an excellent defense and finished with 15 points and 16 rebounds, plus four assists and three blocks. He's playing so well, but the free-throw line is worth watching. Bacot can be a bit streaky there, and he hit a bad streak last Saturday as he made 7 of 15 from the stripe and missed some late that could have been big. He's going to be at the line a ton and he shoots 68.5% on the year, but he's going to need to edge that up a tad for the Tar Heels to win.

Jaime Jaquez. Johnny Juzang was the big name last year and Tyger Campbell was the cool name, but Jaquez was and has been the straw that stirs the drink for UCLA. The 6-7 junior is one of the best shooters in the country, shooting 53.2% from 2 and 28.8% from 3, but still. He also avoids turnovers very well, doles out assists well for a big man and draws fouls extremely efficiently (and shoots well from the line to boot). It's likely that Brady Manek will be spending most of his time guarding Jaquez, and we all saw what happened last week when Manek was out of the game for an extended period. UNC will have to do its best to disrupt Jaquez without fouling. Jaquez averaged 5 points in two games last week on 9 of 21 shooting, but he got to the line 13 times and added eight assists.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 77-69. I don't know how, but I know that I'm not betting against the Tar Heels right now either.