Brownlow: Everything you need to know about the ACC Player of the Year race
Posted March 3, 2022 9:34 a.m. EST
The ACC Player of the Year race is usually all but settled by the end of the season, or at least it seems obvious who will win by now. But it's not all that obvious. There are three clear frontrunners: UNC's Armando Bacot, Duke's Paolo Banchero and Wake Forest's Alondes Williams. And then there's the whole nebulous idea of what makes a Player of the Year, anyway? Is it the player who averages the most points or tops the most statistical categories? Is it the player who puts up the best ACC-only stats or overall stats?Is it the best player on the best team? How a team finishes has tended to matter to voters. It's not an MVP Award, but there are no set criteria on how to vote or what should matter. It's all in the eye of the beholder.
Going into the last weekend of the season, much is still in flux. Williams' case is done, but Bacot and Banchero will have one more chance — and a chance to show not just the ACC media but also the nation why they should win.
I'll give you their stats, plus the case for and against each player. And then you all can decide for yourselves whether or not the media gets it right when Player of the Year is named next week.
ALONDES WILLIAMS, WAKE FOREST
The Numbers (Overall/ACC Only)
Points Per Game: 19.3/17.8 (1st/2nd)
FG%: 51.8%/48.3% (4th/8th)
3FG%: 30.0%/29.8% (NR/NR)
FT%: 70.3%/67.4% (15th/NR)
Rebounds Per Game: 6.7/6.7 (12th/11th)
Assists Per Game: 5.3/5.4 (1st/1st)
Steals Per Game: 1.2/1.0 (NR/NR)
Blocks Per Game: 0.4/0.4 (NR/NR)
The Advanced Numbers (Overall/ACC Only)
ORtg (offensive efficiency rating): 110.6/102.8 (NR/NR)
%Poss (Percentage of team's possessions ended by player): 32.1% (37th/1st)
eFG% (effective field-goal percentage): 56.3%/52.9% (207th/NR)
OR% (offensive rebounding percentage): 5.5/6.2 (NR/NR)
DR% (defensive rebounding percentage): 16.3/15.5 (NR/NR)
ARate (assist rate): 31.8/31.7 (44th/1st)
TORate (turnover rate): 19.9/23.5 (NR/NR)
Block% (block percentage): 1.3/1.2 (NR/NR)
Steal% (steal percentage): 2.0/1.8 (NR/NR)
Why He Could Win
It's a cliche, but ... the numbers do sometimes speak for themselves, yes? I mean, the dude leads THE LEAGUE in both scoring and assists. It is ... not the easiest thing to do to lead the league in both. The Oklahoma transfer is as much a part of why Wake has had this surprising success as second-year head coach Steve Forbes is. And he hasn't piled up stats against bad teams. Of his eight 20-point games in league play, four came against teams that did finish in the top 4. His stats aren't the most efficient, but he has the ball in his hands all the time and Wake counts on him for so much. And even if he isn't the best 3-pointer shooter and can be a little turnover-prone, he still is shooting at a good clip because of how well he scores and draws fouls around the basket. He's not a chucker, in other words. And he's an excellent rebounder to boot. For him to rank in the top 12 of the league in scoring, rebounding, field-goal percentage and assists? Pretty good.
Why He Might Not Win
Wake is not going to finish in the top 4 of a bad ACC. That's not Williams' fault, of course. But there are some voters out there who really value regular-season finish, or at least don't want to award it to anyone outside of the top 4. Williams is a bit turnover-prone, especially compared to the other two candidates — both of which, in theory, should be less adept with the ball. He's not a great 3-point shooter, which doesn't help his efficiency numbers. He also got knocked off of his perch atop the league-only scoring average after Wake's final game, and that title now belongs to Buddy Boeheim. But he still leads the league in overall scoring and his assist numbers have only gotten better and better as the season has gone along. And let's be real here — Wake doesn't get the exposure or hype that a UNC or a Duke does, and if the voters see him just once or twice, it could hurt him too.
ARMANDO BACOT, UNC
The Numbers (Overall/ACC Only)
Points Per Game: 16.4/17.1 (7th/4th)
FG%: 58.5%/56.2% (1st/2nd)
3FG%: 14.3%/20% (NR/NR)
FT%: 69.6%/75.5% (NR/11th)
Rebounds Per Game: 12.7/14.5 (1st/1st)
Assists Per Game: 1.5/1.4 (NR/NR)
Steals Per Game: 0.8/0.8 (NR/NR)
Blocks Per Game: 1.7/1.7 (6th/4th)
The Advanced Numbers (Overall/ACC Only)
ORtg: 119.6/117.9 (129th/14th)
%Poss: 25.0%/25.3% (349th/16th)
eFG%: 58.6%/56.5% (109th/17th)
OR%: 14.6/15.7 (27th/1st)
DR%: 30.9/33.9 (7th/1st)
ARate: 10.0/8.8 (NR/NR)
TORate: 14.7/16.2 (NR/NR)
Block%: 5.8/5.5 (116th/8th)
Steal%: 1.5/1.4 (NR/NR)
Why He Could Win
Bacot is the best player on a UNC team that will finish in the top 4 of the league, and he did it in spite of the fact that his supporting cast has been a bit ... up and down. (Okay, maybe that was an editorialization.) But watch UNC games: Bacot getting quality post touches off of a feed from a teammate is not nearly as common as it is him going up to get his own missed shot, or someone else's, and taking it right back up for a score.
Oh, and then there's his numbers! Here's something crazy: the ACC ranks 20 players in ACC-only rebounding. Bacot is averaging 14.47 rebounds in ACC games, which is 6.31 more than the next-closest player (Banchero at 8.16). If those 6.31 extra rebounds of cushion were averaged by one player in ACC games, they'd rank 14th in ACC-only rebounding. He's averaging MORE THAN SIX rebounds more than anyone else in league games. That's absurd.
He's averaging 17.1 points in league games, he's shooting well, and he ranks among the league leaders in almost every relevant category on a team that will finish in the top 4. And he's a guy that media types like myself love because he never holds back when he talks to us. If people voted only that way, Marcus Paige might have been the ACC POY four years running but it won't hurt his chances either.
Why He Might Not Win
He's not the leading scorer in the league, for one, and ranks third among the three candidates. And if the actual leading scorer weren't an excellent candidate, this would be less of a concern. Also, say you're an ACC voter and you're aware of how important Caleb Love's play is to North Carolina's success. That doesn't mean Bacot isn't important, if we're being fair — UNC is 2-3 in league play when Bacot has an ORtg of 100 or less — but Bacot has also had great performances in games UNC has lost, sometimes by a lot.
And then there's the issue of the two things he doesn't have that his competitors do: assists and 3-point shooting. He's doing fine on assists — his numbers are solid for a big man — but Banchero's exceptional passing has vaulted him into the league leaders in ACC-only assists. Bacot hasn't taken a lot of 3s, and he hasn't made a lot either.
More important than that, though, would be that his team didn't win the league and was (at least so far) blown out by the teams that feature the players he'd be competing against. It's not how the award is decided, but if it's close and if Duke blows out UNC and Banchero has a big game, it could tip the scales against him.
PAOLO BANCHERO, DUKE
The Numbers (Overall/ACC Only)
Points Per Game: 16.9/17.1 (6th/5th)
FG%: 46.5%/45.2% (13th/13th)
3FG%: 33.0%/32.4% (NR/NR)
FT%: 75.5%/72.3% (11th/14th)
Rebounds Per Game: 7.8/8.2 (4th/2nd)
Assists Per Game: 3.0/3.5 (NR/12th)
Steals Per Game: 1.0 (NR/NR)
Blocks Per Game: 0.9/1.1 (T-13th/13th)
The Advanced Numbers (Overall/ACC Only)
ORtg: 109.7/108.4 (NR/NR)
%Poss: 27.9%/28.5% (128th/5th)
eFG%: 50.8%/49.4% (NR/NR)
OR%: 6.2/7.1 (NR/24)
DR%: 20.1/18.8 (237/18)
ARate: 17.2/19.8 (NR/17)
TORate: 15.9/16.5 (NR/NR)
Block%: 2.7/2.9 (441/16)
Steal%: 1.9/1.3 (NR/NR)
The Case For
He's the best player on the best team, for one, and that is often enough for some voters. Also, we all have eyeballs. We see how good he is. So do NBA scouts, and he'll certainly be picked in the lottery if not higher. Does that matter for ACC POY? Not necessarily, but it doesn't hurt, right? He passes the eye test, that's for sure. It also really works in his favor that he's such a versatile player: shoots well, rebounds well, is a great passer and is getting better on the defensive end. Oh, and he can shoot from the outside and has a bevy of post moves to keep defenders (and he's almost always seeing multiple defenders) at bay. Bacot may have some better numbers than Banchero, but Banchero is the more well-rounded player.
Another thing working in Banchero's favor is the same thing that could improve Bacot's stock: they'll both be playing in a game that most of the college basketball-loving country will be watching. If he has a big game, it will be the last thing that voters remember. He hit a bit of a snag through ... well, most of February, but he has scored exactly 21 points in each of the last two games. Score 21 or more, pull down a ton of rebounds, dish out some assists and do it while putting an exclamation point on Duke's ACC regular-season-winning season in Coach K's last home game? That would be tough to forget.
The Case Against
Neither his advanced stats nor his real ones stack up with the others. Bacot is one of the top rebounders and shot-blockers in the country and in the league. Alondes Williams is a top scorer and one of the best nationally in assists. His usage percentage can explain some of that, but Bacot finishes 25.3% of his team's possessions in ACC play and Banchero 28.5 percent. That's a difference, for sure, but not as large as the one between Williams (32.1, nearly a third!) and the field. It will help Banchero to finish against Bacot's team, especially if he clearly out-plays him. But if it's not as clear and one looks at the stats, they may say well, here are two big men and one has clearly been more efficient in Bacot.
One could argue Banchero not leading the league in anything is at least in part due to Banchero's game being a bit more versatile, which it is, or due to Duke having plenty of other talent around Banchero that would also like to score, which it does. Or that the increased defensive attention he draws is reason enough for him to be POY. But the same is true for both Williams and Bacot, to varying degrees.
Some voters may say he's clearly the best player and he's on the best team and that's that. I certainly won't argue. I think with the lack of rules around it, the ACC POY can be whatever the voter wants it to be. But if if'ts just stats, he's been excellent but the other two have been better.
