16 storylines to watch as the Sweet 16 begins

By Lauren Bronwlow, WRALSportsFan columnnist/reporter

With the Sweet 16 underway, there are still plenty of riveting storylines still alive and well in March Madness — well, they're doing better than your bracket is, anyway. As the Sweet 16 begins Thursday night, let's take a look at the storylines, with some Ken Pomeroy advanced analytics sprinkled in along the way!

(And no, I'm not going to talk about the possibility of Carolina and Duke meeting in the Final Four. We all know it's a jinx.)

1. March isn't actually THAT mad this year....

Sure, all of our brackets are in tatters. But most of the really good teams are still alive. Pomeroy ranks teams in order of their schedule-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and nine of the top 12 teams are still alive. That's over half the Sweet 16.

Defense wins championships, right? That's probably true — six of the top 14 in Pomeroy's defensive rankings are still alive, as are seven of the top 19 and 10 of the top 30. Miami is the outlier, ranking 121st. Everyone else ranks 89th or better.

But offensively? Six of the top eight offenses are left, and eight of the top 12. Overall, 13 Sweet 16 teams rank 46th or better in adjusted offense.

Baylor is the only team that has been eliminated in spite of ranking in the top 15 both offensively and defensively.

2. ...But we have to talk about Saint Peter's.

Looking at the 15th-seeded Peacocks' stats, it becomes even harder to see how they've done what they've done beyond just the 15-seed next to their name.

Usually, the plucky mid-majors or low-majors that pull the upsets are good shooting teams. St. Peter's actually is (35.1%, 87th nationally) and they rebound and get to the foul line pretty well. But the Peacocks turn it over a bunch (310th in turnover percentage) and shoot just 46.1% from two (313th nationally). Also, only four teams in the country have a higher percentage of their shots blocked than St. Peter's.

But this team is doing it with defense, a defense that still ranks 28th nationally in adjusted efficiency in spite of the schedule they play. They force opponents into making just 29.5% of their 3-pointers (16th nationally) and 44% of their 2s (12th nationally). And they're 47th in defensive turnover percentage. They foul a lot, but they also get fouled a lot.

And this is a group that has played together a lot and uses an active bench. Whereas a lot of rosters in the Sweet 16 are built at least in part by transfer, seven of St. Peter's top eight players have only ever played there. Only reserve senior Isiah Dasher ever played anywhere else, transferring in from Portland. And four of their five starters have played together for three years now, plus two more rotation guys in Doug Ebert and Fousseyni Drame.

Also, the Peacock mascot rules. It was chosen for good reason, of course (better than the reason other mascots are picked).

But it's just a cool mascot. It's the only Division I team with a peacock as the mascot. Dare to be different!

3. And Providence.

Fun fact: the only team ranked lower in Ken Pom than Providence with the same or fewer losses is Murray State, ranked 35th to the Friars' 33rd, and the Racers are 30-3 and in the Missouri Valley.

It's not the league bringing Providence down, or their schedule. Ken Pom has Providence with the 60th toughest schedule in the country overall, which is middle of the pack among the remaining teams.

Ed Cooley is one of the more underrated coaches in college basketball, and this transfer-driven group is one of his better teams. It's a group that's old, and knows how to win. But it doesn't do anything all that well. The highest it ranks nationally in any category on offense or defense is 32nd in 3-point defense (30.3%), which is probably a pretty good key as to why the Friars have won so much.

The other issue is that while Providence has won a lot, it hasn't often won convincingly. Their 28-point win over Richmond in the Round of 32, though, tied for their biggest margin of victory all season, and their 21-point win over Creighton towards the end of the Big East season was one of their bigger wins as well in terms of margin. But overall, 18 of their 27 wins have come by 10 points or less. And it didn't help that three of their five losses came by 18 points or more.

Still, the Friars will be plenty comfortable in close games, and they won't be rattled playing Kansas or whomever.

4. Do you miss ACC transfers? We have just the team for you.

The Razorbacks are your team to watch if you like seeing what ACC transfers are up to. Former Miami point guard Chris Lykes, the one who's somewhat generally listed at 5-7, plays as a reserve for Arkansas, while former Pitt forward Au'Diese Toney starts and averages 8.1 points for the Razorbacks.

5. Speaking of change, how about these first-year head coaches?

Sure, you've got your Mark Few, Mike Krzyzewski, Jay Wright, Bill Self, Kelvin Sampson and Matt Painter. And Ed Cooley, Jim Larranaga, Mick Cronin, Juwan Howard and Eric Musselman are no slouches either. But four of the 16 coaches are in their first year at their school, and all are doing it at Power 5 jobs. Tommy Lloyd, a former Gonzaga assistant, was tasked with taking over an Arizona program in NCAA-related turmoil, and he's likely going to be the national coach of the year. Hubert Davis took an inconsistent start to the season and turned the Tar Heels around down the stretch, doing all of that after taking over a UNC program that had sprung leaks the last few years. Mark Adams of Texas Tech is perhaps the most interesting first-year coach at age 64, and he's probably the only coach to make a Sweet 16 that used to own a minor-league hockey team.

T.J. Otzelberger was an Iowa State assistant for eight years in three different stints before taking two head coaching jobs and finding his way back to Ames. And he's got them back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016 after they had a 2-22 season last year.

6. The biggest splash in this year's Sweet 16 is from the coach that's rightfully peacocking right now — Shaheen Holloway.

Saint Peter's head coach Shaheen Holloway has gone viral more than once during this Cinderella run by his Peacocks,

And he's put Jersey back in the basketball map, getting the state back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2000. Interestingly enough, that team — Seton Hall — also has an opening at head coach, and can likely offer Holloway far more than the $245,000 he's making now.

7. A wide range of playing styles remain in the field.

The average ranking in tempo (possessions per game) of the remaining teams is 175.9, and there are 358 Division I teams. There are some in both extremes — Houston and Villanova are two of the slowest nationally, while Arizona and Gonzaga are two of the fastest — and slightly more teams rank in the bottom half nationally than the top, but still. Interestingly, of the seven teams in the top half in tempo, all three are the ACC teams that are still in the field.

8. Doug Edert is trying to become the breakout star of March Madness and has pounced on NIL opportunities.

We remember the names of our Cinderella March Madness heroes, and Saint Peter's mustachioed reserve guard Doug Edert is the first to be able to capitalize on that.

9. Mascot watch!

Remaining are four people (Blue Devil, Friar, Red Raider and Boilermaker), two weather events (Hurricane, Cyclone) and a menagerie of animals.

We'll have just one remaining weather event as the Miami Hurricanes do battle with the Iowa State Cyclones. There will also be some feline-on-feline crime as the Arizona Wildcats do battle against the Houston Cougars. A wolverine vs. a wildcat makes for a very intriguing wildlife matchup between Michigan and Villanova, while a Blue Devil will have to use his pitchfork to win a fight with a Red Raider armed with an actual gun, which seems unfair. Maybe if the Red Raider is unarmed and the two just fight without weapons? The Blue Devil is pretty spry.

A Razorback vs. a Bulldog in Arkansas-Gonzaga would certainly match two powerful, strong and stubborn animals up against one another. But only one has tusks.

The Tar Heels will be the underdog by seed and the mascot, Rameses, will also be the underdog against a fight with UCLA's Bruin. A bruin is a bear, you see. A bear against a sheep? Yeah. Not good.

Two of the biggest mascot contrasts also involve some of the freakiest mascots in all of college basketball: the dead, vacant eyes of Purdue Pete will battle against all that is good and vibrant in the world in Pete the Peacock. And then you have the legendary Kansas Jayhawk trying to maintain its sanity as the soul-sucking eyes of the Friar gaze deep within its heart.

10. Storylines that mean nothing yet everything, Part I: Duke vs. the west coast.

Duke has never won a game in the West Regional. I'm not sure if you've heard that before, but it's true.

They've been in the West three times: 2003, when they lost in the Sweet 16 to Kansas in a 2 vs. 3 matchup; 2011, when they lost to 5-seed Arizona as the 1-seed; and 2016, when they lost to 1-seed Oregon as the Ducks' 4-seed.

But all three of those losses took place in the same venue: the Honda Center in Anaheim.

And all three of those teams, save maybe 2011 Duke, had one thing in common: they, uh, played to seed? Yes, I know there are upsets in the NCAA Tournament, and I know that a 2-3 game could be anyone's, for example. But a game between the 1 and the 4-seed is a tad different. Since 2002, Duke hasn't gotten past the Elite Eight as a 2-seed anyway. Duke's been a 3 one other time besides 2003 in that stretch and lost in the first round. Duke was a 4-seed in 2016 and Duke's only been a lower seed than 3 one other time in that stretch, and that team lost in the first round. Now, Duke hasn't been past the Elite Eight since 2002 as a 2-seed or worse. Maybe that storyline should matter as much or more than how Duke has done in the NCAA Tournament when it arguably wasn't a national title contender anyway. The one exception I'd make is 2011, but we all know that Kyrie Irving's return in the postseason just disrupted the team's chemistry.

(This is a joke a certain percentage of you will get, but that was a thing that was said about that 2011 Duke team: that adding Kyrie Irving was somehow bad.)

Paolo Banchero is comfortable in San Francisco. Anyway, the point is that if Duke loses this weekend, it won't be because they're in San Francisco or on the west coast.

11. Storylines that mean nothing yet everything, Part II: UNC's history with UCLA.

UNC actually leads the all-time series with the Bruins 10-3, and yet they've split their only two NCAA Tournament meetings. Carolina beat UCLA in 1989 while UCLA beat UNC in the title game in the John Wooden era in 1968.

Of course, the last time these two teams met was 2019. Only Leaky Black and Armando Bacot remain for UNC, but a lot of UCLA's key cogs are still around, including Jaime Jacquez and Tyger Campbell. But that was Mick Cronin's first season, and it was before the Bruins really got things rolling under Cronin.

Still, it'll be mentioned, especially since these two blue bloods haven't faced off all that many times.

12. Remy Martin might be getting it together at just the right time for Kansas.

Kansas got to a No. 1 seed in the Tournament largely without the high-profile Arizona State transfer. Martin got hurt at the beginning of the year and missed nine of the Jayhawks' first 16 games of 2022.

He scored in bunches for the Sun Devils, but it hadn't really materialized yet in Lawrence. But after returning for the final five games of the regular season, it's clicked into gear for him in the last four games.

Martin has scored in double figures for four straight games and averaged 17.5 points in two NCAA Tournament games on 13 of 22 shooting. He was 3 of 6 from 3 and he had not made three 3-pointers in Kansas' previous six games combined. Martin also had eight assists, two steals and eight rebounds in his two NCAA Tournament games and only turned it over once.

Kansas did fine without Martin. But with him? Their ceiling seems significantly higher.

13. Welcome back.

Six of this year's Sweet Sixteen teams also made the Sweet 16 a year ago: Gonzaga, Michigan, UCLA, Villanova, Arkansas and Houston.

The new additions aren't quite so new, though. With Kansas, Duke, UNC and Arizona back, that means six of the top 11 schools in all-time Sweet 16 appearances are in the field. Eleven of the 16 schools have at least 12 Sweet 16 appearances.

There are some "new blood" schools on that list that shouldn't be confused as being new to the Sweet 16, though. Texas Tech is in its eighth Sweet Sixteen in program history, but three of those have come since 2018. Purdue has been to the Sweet 16 four of the last five NCAA Tournaments. I mean, Gonzaga has "only" been to 12 Sweet 16s. But does it feel that way? No, because they've been to seven in a row.

But it's still very cool that four of the top five schools in all-time Sweet 16 appearances are still dancing.

14. It's been awhile!

The not-so-tortured fanbases of 14 of the Sweet 16 schools have seen their team in a Sweet 16 in the last six years.

But for two schools, at least, the wait was real: Saint Peter's is in its first Sweet 16, and would you believe that Providence hasn't made the Sweet 16 since 1997?

The team in the field with the most Sweet 16 appearances without an Elite Eight, though? It's Miami. In fact, only one team has more Sweet 16s without an Elite Eight (Texas A&M). If there's ever a year for Jim Larranaga and company to break that streak, it's this year.

Saint Peter's has never even been in the Sweet 16 before now, so obviously they haven't reached an Elite Eight. Every other Sweet 16 team has been to at least one Elite Eight, and five of this year's Sweet 16 went to last year's Elite Eight.

UNC has the sixth-longest drought of the Sweet 16 field as the Tar Heels haven't made an Elite Eight since 2017. Arizona has the next-longest with 2015 being their last appearance.

And then you have two fanbases that have had a long wait.

Iowa State's last Elite Eight came in 2000, when Larry Eustachy led the Cyclones to a 32-4 record before they fell to eventual national champ Michigan State in the Elite Eight. That team featured names like Jamaal Tinsley and Marcus Fizer.

Providence last made the Elite Eight in 1997, crazily enough. Those Friars were led by former Virginia coach and ACC legend Pete Gillen, who took the 10-seed Friars on a Cinderella run to the Elite Eight before falling to Arizona, the eventual national champ. That Providence team featured a name that all of you folks of a certain age know well: the legendary God Shammgod.

15. Some schools may never get there.

Now that we know the Sweet 16, let's take a look at the schools that have been to the NCAA Tournament a lot without getting to the Sweet 16 at all. Don't take it for granted if your team has been, because not every team in college basketball will accomplish that — even some Power 5 teams. Or one Power 5 team, anyway: Nebraska.

There are 51 teams that have played at least five NCAA Tournament games without a Sweet 16. Nebraska is the only Power 5 team among them. That's just embarrassing.

Saint Peter's broke a streak of three NCAA Tournament appearances without a Sweet 16, but some schools have gone much longer than that.

Just two schools have made 15 or more NCAA Tournament appearances without a Sweet 16: Iona (0 for 15) and Murray State (0 for 18).

16. And some schools get there a higher percentage of the time than others. A lot higher.

The names at the top of the list for highest percentage of their NCAA Tournament appearances resulting in the Sweet 16 is not surprising. Kentucky leads the way, getting there in 74.6% of its NCAA Tournament appearances. Duke is second (72.7%). UCLA is third at 70% and Carolina is fourth at 67.3 percent.

Seven of this year's Sweet 16 teams rank in the top 14 of percentage of their NCAA Tournament bids that make it to the Sweet 16.

Three of the other teams — Purdue, Villanova and Gonzaga — are newer mainstays to the Sweet 16, but they've become veritable mainstays nevertheless.

Interestingly, two of the top 10 in this category who made it with limited sample size — Loyola and San Francisco — lost in this year's NCAA Tournament before the Sweet 16.

Santa Clara didn't make it, but they are eighth in this stat, reaching the Sweet 16 in a ridiculous 7 of their 11 NCAA Tournament appearances (63.6%).