North Carolina vs. Duke pick: Latest odds, analysis and predictions

The stakes are high, even for this series. A North Carolina victory would give the Tar Heels the outright ACC title. A win for the Blue Devils would mean the Tobacco Road rivals would share the ACC regular season crown.

Let's break down some betting trends and advanced stats for this matchup.

Spread: Duke -4.5 (via FanDuel)

Betting trends to know for North Carolina

North Carolina is…

Duke is…

Rumors of the ACC's demise this year are overblown — at least as far Duke and North Carolina are concerned. Both the Tar Heels and Blue Devils are red-hot going into this regular-season finale in Durham.

Duke has won eight of its last nine games, including three in a row coming into this matchup against the Tar Heels. Duke's lone blemish during that stretch was a road loss at Wake Forest. Since then, the Blue Devils have smash Louisville, Virginia and NC State by 15+ points. On the other side, Carolina has won five straight games and has only suffered three losses since Dec. 30. UNC's win streak includes double-digit victories over Virginia Tech, Virginia and Notre Dame.

It is worth noting that neither of these teams have really been tested during their recent hot streaks (Alright, maybe the ACC is having a bit of a down year). Duke is 0-2 in Quad 1 games since the beginning of February, with one of those losses coming to the Tar Heels. UNC is 2-1 in Quad 1 games dating back to mid-January with wins over Duke and Virginia.

Both of these teams are anchored by talented bigs, although their styles are very different. Filipowski is a stretch-5 who can can knock down 3-pointers and score in the post. Bacot is a more traditional big who is the all-time leading rebounder in North Carolina history. Bacot does have some experience over Filipowski, but the Blue Devils' big man is gifted enough to make up for that difference — he's widely projected to be a lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

Earlier this year, Filipowski scored 22 points on 17 shots against the Tar Heels. Filipowski took six 3-pointers (one off his season high) in that game as he tried to draw Bacot out of the paint. Bacot was very comfortable scoring in the post against Duke in the last meeting between these teams, as he poured in 25 points on 10-of-13 shooting. Bacot also grabbed 10 rebounds and dished out 5 assists in the win over the Blue Devils.

Both Filipowski and Bacot are capable of big performances in this matchup, as neither can really guard the other. Last year, Filipowski and Bacot each scored at least 14 points in both of their matchups against each other. The college game is more perimeter-oriented than ever, but the big man is still heavily involved in these offenses. Filipowski leads Duke in usage rate at 28% and Bacot is second in that category amongst UNC players at 21%. Whoever gets the better of this matchup will put their team in great position to win the game.

Duke and North Carolina have remarkably-similar strengths and weaknesses when looking under the hood at their statistical profiles. Both are top-30 in offense and top-30 in defense, according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings. Both are solid rebounding teams on each end of the floor. Both can shoot the 3-ball, but neither offers much in the way of rim protection.

So if we're looking for ways to separate these teams, it's probably best to look at their first meeting from earlier this year in Chapel Hill. UNC won that game 93-84 as it scored an impressive 1.22 points per possession. Duke, to its credit, scored at will from inside the arc.

However, the Blue Devils had an uncharacteristically-bad game from 3-point land, going just 5-of-19 (26%) from that distance. Their season-long average is 38%. Despite the poor 3-point shooting game, Duke shot 51% from the floor and scored 1.11 points per possession — a total that will be good enough to win on a lot of nights.

Carolina also significantly out-shot Duke at the foul line — 25 attempts to 11 — in the first meeting, which is not necessarily a trend that will continue in Round 2. The Tar Heels do have a higher free throw rate this season (37.6% compared to 34%) but not to the degree that it showed up in their February matchup. Duke's defense also has a better free throw rate allowed than Carolina's does, so I'd expect this to even out — if not be in Duke's favor — for the rematch in Durham.

Duke -4.5. I'm backing the home team here. Duke has been playing very well and provides some matchup challenges for the Tar Heels.

Duke has better 3-point shooters, led by Filipowski, Jeremy Roach and freshman guard Jared McCain. McCain is shooting 47% from 3-point range on a volume of 6.7 attempts in his last seven games. I like Duke's defensive options in the back court against ACC Player of the Year front-runner RJ Davis. Davis was held to 17 points on 5-of-14 shooting in his last matchup against Duke.

I expect the Blue Devils to shoot the ball much better and get to the foul line a bit more than they did in their first meeting with UNC earlier this year.