In choice for president, governor, North Carolina's true color is purple, polls show

Former President Donald Trump and current Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who is running for governor, have strong leads among likely voters in the North Carolina Republican primary. But when paired against their likely general election opponents, their prospects diverge.

Trump has a "commanding lead," the poll found, over Republican primary opponent S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley. Just 20% of those surveyed indicated they preferred Haley over Trump.

“Trump’s lead in North Carolina seems very consistent since the last administration of the Meredith Poll. Even with Republicans dropping out of the race, there seems to be no momentum for Nikki Haley in the state,” said Meredith Poll Director David McLennan.

Robinson has the lead in the Republican gubernatorial primary, polling 34% to Bill Graham's 9%, but 42% of likely voters in that primary told Meredith they were undecided.

North Carolina's primary takes place on March 5.

"It seems to be getting very late in the campaign cycle for any of Robinson’s challengers to catch up with him,” McLennan said. “However, the large number of undecided voters this late in the campaign should be concerning to the Robinson campaign."

A spokesperson with Robinson's campaign released a statement following the poll results:

“It is no secret that this race is going to be hotly contested; North Carolina is one of the biggest political battlegrounds in the country. Meanwhile, just last week Lt. Gov. Robinson’s campaign announced record-breaking fundraising numbers for a North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate, and is building grassroots momentum with voters in communities all across the state. Lt. Gov. Robinson’s campaign is resonating with voters because he’s not afraid to take on the failed record of Biden, Stein and the Democrats; rampant illegal immigration, crippling inflation, crime on the rise in many of our cities, struggling schools and more.”

Josh Stein, North Carolina's attorney general running for governor, was the choice of 31% of likely Democratic primary voters, but more than half of those surveyed told Meredith they have yet to make up their minds.

"This is awful late to have this many undecided voters. I expect people will start paying attention the closer they get to the voting decision," McLellan said.

Stein has the endorsement of Gov. Roy Cooper, who has reached his two-term limit, and had nearly $17 million in his campaign war chest at the end of 2023.

"Trump may win the state, but the Democrat may win the state for the governor’s race," McLellan said.

"If you look at Gov. Roy Cooper’s approval ratings, he has the highest approval rating of any politician and has had since he’s been in office. Even Republicans say, 'Well, I think he’s going to do a pretty good job.’

"(The idea that) you don’t change horses in midstream could be working in Stein’s favor."

As governor's race heats up, Stein leads Robinson in fundraising

A Stein spokesperson said:

“North Carolinians are supporting Josh’s campaign for Governor because they believe in his vision for a safer, stronger North Carolina. This November, voters will reject Lieutenant Governor Robinson’s divisive agenda of defunding public schools and banning abortion and send Josh to the Governor’s office to bring people together and deliver on the issues that matter to their daily lives.”

Stein's Democratic primary opponent Mike Morgan told WRAL News:

"Our campaign detects oddities in these poll results, especially in light of the steady growth in the enthusiastic crowd numbers, fundraising amounts, and other positive indicators as Justice Morgan continually travels throughout the state to personally meet voters, make presentations, and participate in candidate forums. The significant number of undecided voters indicates to us that they are still not impressed with Justice Morgan's chief primary opponent despite years of campaigning for the position and that Justice Morgan's candidacy continues to build major traction in this wide-open race."

North Carolina joins 14 other states with primaries held on March 5, 2024. Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, and the territory of American Samoa, will also vote.

While a presidential primary generally brings more voters to the polls, the seemingly forgone conclusion that Trump and Biden will meet again in November may dampen that enthusiasm. "The fact that neither primary campaign is particularly competitive might mean a lower-than-average turnout for the primary," the Meredith Poll surmised.

North Carolina Voter Guide 2024: Who's running, how, where, when to vote in NC election

Interest will peak, however, after candidates at the top of the ballot are set.

Both the presidential and gubernatorial races are close when pollsters asked about a potential November match-up between the leading major party candidates.

“Given our recent presidential election history in North Carolina, I still expect this to be a closely contested election between Trump and Biden,” McLennan said.

The poll found Trump with a 44% to 39% lead over Biden among likely voters, with only 4% undecided.

Voters who identified themselves as urban, liberal and highly educated tended to prefer Biden, while those in rural areas and with less education choose Trump.

"Biden is weaker," McLellan said. "He was running very strong with Black voters and young voters. And we’ve seen, definitely, a degradation in terms of both those constituent groups, particularly Black males. We’ve seen them looking at Trump more.

"And then young voters, ever since the attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and the US response, we have seen Biden’s numbers go down with 18-24-year-olds. That’s the real issue for Biden right now."

In both the upcoming gubernatorial and presidential elections the margin of preference was very close. The High Point University poll found:

In a potential gubernatorial race between Robinson and Stein, a full 20% said they have not made up their minds. Of those with a preference, Stein holds a slight margin (39% to Robinson's 35%).

Support for the two men is split along ideological lines, with conservatives showing a strong preference for Robinson and liberals leaning toward Stein. The Democrat's lead comes among voters who identify as politically moderate.

"North Carolina has a history of supporting Republican candidates for president and Democratic candidates for governor," McLennan said, “No one should be surprised if North Carolina continues this political tradition in 2024.”

High Point also asked voters what issues mattered most and found inflation (72%), national security (71%), school safety (70%), protecting democracy (66%) and health care (66%) at the top of that list.

The Meredith poll also asked about public questions including distracted driving, medical marijuana, casino gambling and even whether pop star Taylor Swift's relationship with a player makes them like the NFL's Kansas City Chiefs any less. (63% said it had no impact.)

Asked about the safety of North Carolina's roads, half of those surveyed said they feel somewhat unsafe, blaming speed, reckless driving and distracted driving by others. More than 90% said they would support a law that banned drivers from holding a mobile device while their car is in motion.

It is the single issue on which North Carolinians across parties and demographics can agree, McLellan said. “We have polled on this for several years now and the support has only grown for passage of such legislation. There is such strong awareness that phones and safe driving do not go together.”

The evolution of attitudes toward marijuana is evident in the majority – even those that self-identify as the most conservative – who support a North Carolina law that would allow doctors to prescribe marijuana for certain physical and mental conditions. Only 12 states, including North Carolina, have yet to pass such a law.