How to bet NC State vs. UNC: Best promos, latest odds, prediction

North Carolina will battle in-state rival NC State on Saturday night in an unlikely ACC Tournament title game matchup.

North Carolina took care of business in its semifinal on Friday night, edging Pitt 72-65. NC State continued its Cinderella run in Washington, DC, this week with yet another upset, shocking No. 3-seeded Virginia in overtime. The Wolfpack forced OT with a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer from Michael O'Connell.

Here's a full preview for Saturday night's championship game, including a full analysis, the best betting promos, and how to bet the game.

In addition to the ACC Tournament crown, the Tar Heels are fighting for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. UNC has the inside track to the top line after Tennessee bowed out of the SEC Tournament on Friday, but the Tar Heels may need to win the ACC Tournament to seal their 1-seed status.

NC State, on the other hand, is just trying to earn an invite to the Big Dance. The Wolfpack must upset their biggest rival on Saturday night to secure an automatic bid if they want to play in the NCAA Tournament this year. They're a true potential bid-stealer with no hope to earn an at-large bid into the field of 68.

NC State's run to the title game has been remarkable. The Wolfpack have won 4 games in 4 days, a stretch that includes victories over Duke and Virginia. The most recent win over the Cavaliers came in overtime after the Wolfpack mounted an incredible comeback in the game's final minute.

UNC and NC State have met twice already this season, with the Tar Heels winning both. NC State lost the first matchup 67-54 in Raleigh after it went 2-for-20 from 3-point range. That's obviously an outlier performance, but 3-point defense has been a strength for UNC all season. In the second game, NC State lost 79-70 after shooting just 39% from inside the arc.

DJ Horne struggled mightily from the field in both contests. He's coming off of a hip injury but has still been a big part of how NC State has made it this far. But against the Tar Heels, Horne is 10-of-35 from the field this season. NC State will also likely need a better performance out of DJ Burns, who has struggled going up against Armando Bacot. Burns has just 17 points on 17 shots vs. the Tar Heels in 2023-24.

NC State's run has been remarkable, but I trust UNC to get the job done here. Winning 5 games in 5 days is just too much to ask of an NC State team that also is playing with a talent deficiency compared to Carolina. Even keeping this game to single digits would be a Herculean effort after what the energy the Wolfpack have had to expend this week. If there's anything we've learned about Hubert Davis, RJ Davis and Bacot over the past couple of years, it's that you can trust them in a rivalry game.

Both teams have above-average tempos on the season. UNC averaged 73 points in its 2 wins vs. the Wolfpack this season. NC State might try to slow things down given the week it has endured, but I bet the Tar Heels will be trying to speed things up for that same reason. I'd estimate this one gets north of 70 possessions each and UNC has the upside to score well into the 80s. UNC's offense has been excellent lately and it will be going up against a NC State team playing its 5th game in 5 days.

Sticking with the theme here, I like Bacot to go over this total. He's had a bit of a quiet season overall (by his standards), as his usage rate has dipped to a career-low 21.7% in favor of more efficiency and more touches for ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis. But he seems to ramping up now that it's the postseason, and he's easily eclipsed this number in both ACC Tournament games so far. NC State will fight hard — it has proven that — but Bacot's physicality could prove to be a major problem for the Wolfpack at the end of a marathon week.