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How retail growth is stimulating the Triangle's overall commercial real estate market

The retail market in the Triangle is heating up as brands from across the country evaluate the region as a viable option for expansion. With this growth, other segments of the commercial real estate market are being stimulated as the demand for office, industrial, and other property types also increase.

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How retail growth is stimulating the Triangle's overall commercial real estate market
This article was written for our Sponsor, CBRE
As eCommerce sales sharply increased during the pandemic, people began to speculate about the future of brick-and-mortar retail. Headlines claimed that retail was dying, however, it's evident that retail is alive and well. According to the National Retail Federation, the number of store openings outpaced store closings in 2022. And, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, eCommerce shopping only accounted for 15.6% of all retail sales in the third quarter of 2023. In the Triangle, retail growth has been healthy throughout 2023 and looks promising for the year ahead.
Much of this can be attributed to the rapid growth of the Triangle itself. In fact, the Raleigh and Durham metro areas have been ranked among the fastest-growing places in the United States. "It wasn't until we were coming out of the pandemic that we saw an acceleration in rent growth. A lot of that was driven by the increase in density for our market and the increase in demand for different product types and retailers. I believe we went from being viewed as a tertiary retail environment to being a preeminent retail thought for various expanding brands," remarked Tiffany Barrier, Senior Vice President of Retail Services at CBRE.

Often, Raleigh gets compared to other fast-growing markets like Austin, TX, or Phoenix, AZ, since it's also a tech-heavy, educated market. One key differentiator is comparatively low rents. "Historically we have had a gap in the prospective sales volumes of stores in relation to escalated rents. That is no longer the case. We have supporting volumes, and our rents remain relatively attractive. I think we still have some runway, , and it's a benefit to our market as brands are evaluating where they want to put their funds," said Barrier.

One thing that has remained constant is the relatively low vacancy rates in retail properties. "The thing that's grown is our demand from out-of-market brands and demand for really high-quality assets," continued Barrier. New brands are increasingly exploring the Triangle as a viable contender for their retail expansions. Moreover, brands aren't only interested in being in the heart of a downtown area. "There's still a big emphasis on suburban retail. I think one of the pieces that we've seen is a draw to being around mixed-use and multifamily residential properties. People want to be part of high-quality experiential mixed-use projects."

This increase in retail is also driving up the demand for other types of properties in the Triangle. "​​It's all part of the ecosystem. It's easy for us to try to look at retail, office, and industrial in a silo, but they all work together. The more retail we get, the more distribution and operation facilities they need. Then, there’s surrounding job growth. Right now, retail has a major impact on office decisions. Companies want to be located where their employees will have amenities," said Barrier. This includes places where people can dine, shop, or take care of personal services on lunch breaks or after work.

Ultimately, the Triangle’s retail growth has been a powerful driving force for the overall commercial real estate market.

This article was written for our Sponsor, CBRE

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