How fast the Republican primary is narrowing, in one chart

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ended his campaign on Sunday and endorsed Trump; Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson ended theirs after disappointing finishes in last week’s Iowa caucuses.

Crowded candidate fields often narrow rapidly following Iowa and New Hampshire, which have long been the first two contests on the presidential nominating calendar.

Out of the 11 major Republican candidates who competed in Iowa in 2016, it was just over 90 days before Trump was the only one left standing. (This analysis is defining major candidates as those receiving more than 1% of the vote in the Iowa caucuses.)

This year, just a week after Iowa, only Haley remains, setting up 2024 to be one of the shortest competitive primary seasons in recent history.

In 2016, the Democratic field narrowed to  Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders after the Iowa caucuses, but then the race to the nomination remained competitive through the entire primary season.

Trump won 98 of 99 Iowa counties in last week’s Iowa caucuses and outperformed his 2016 results. He claimed more than 50% of the vote, the biggest win in the history of the Iowa caucuses. Haley came in third, with 19.1% of the vote.

As for New Hampshire, Trump held 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State, with Haley at 39% and DeSantis at 6%, according to a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire that was released Sunday before DeSantis’ exit.

When DeSantis’ supporters are reallocated to their second-choice candidates, Trump leads Haley by a wider 54% to 41% margin. Another 3% of likely GOP primary voters say they’d vote for someone else.

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