Filing flurry fills NC ballots
We reached out across the state for analysis. See what people who follow NC politics closely think you should notice as filing closes.
Posted — UpdatedFive Democrats signed up, along with one candidate from the Green Party and one Libertarian. Meadows waited to announce until after a state deadline to drop out of other races, making it impossible for legislators and others already seeking re-election to move into the congressional race.
"A lot of people are not happy," former state Sen. Tom Apodaca, now a lobbyist, said late Friday.
Western Carolina University politics professor Chris Cooper said the timing particularly hurt Democrats who might have run.
Former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Barbara Jackson, a Republican and one of several people WRAL News reached out to Friday for analysis at the close of filing, said Mumma's candidacy "seems like a game-changer."
WRAL reached out for top-line analysis from politicos around the state, and their written responses appear below, lightly edited. Apodaca, who preferred a phone conversation, is the only exception.
"I don't put things in writing. I like to talk," he said.
The State Board of Elections also determined Friday the order in which candidates names will appear on ballots. This was done by pulling a ball out of a bingo machine, and candidates whose last names begin with the letter “O” will appear first, then going in alphabetical order and wrapping back around.
Candidates whose last names begin with an "N" will be last.
House Republicans have recruited quality candidates in every competitive race, while Democrats have clearly abandoned rural North Carolina. Democrats have only recruited radicals and party hacks at the last minute against strong incumbents in seats they should have been competitive in and held easily before 2010. We are very confident in holding the majority and returning a super-majority.
There are a heck of a lot of Republican retirements. That seems like some combo of writing on the wall, their agenda is complete and the impact of this year’s session. I think we have the most diverse set of candidates ever – women, people of color, LGBTQ.
It's amazing 20 people filed for the 11th District. I've never seen so many filings for one office in my life. I don't know how these folks who don't have any name recognition are going to be able to afford to get in this market and get name recognition. With the Democratic presidential primary eating up all the TV, it's going to be hugely expensive, and mail boxes are going to be full.
One contest that suddenly became more interesting is the race for attorney general. Incumbent Josh Stein has a substantial fundraising advantage at this point, but Chris Mumma’s entry into the race seems like a game-changer, given her national profile working on innocence issues. The appellate court races look markedly different this year, with eight head-to-head contests, rather than several three-way races with no primary. Voters will have a clear choice.
I think the state-level 2020 election is going to be huge for education. The last few years have been brutal for our public schools. If we can elect a superintendent who is an experienced classroom teacher with enough steel in their spine to speak the truth to state legislators, AND if we can flip a chamber of the General Assembly, we could potentially end up with a situation where lawmakers are willing (or at least obligated) to listen to the needs of educators and pass legislation that's more supportive of our public education system.
After a flurry of last-minute candidate filings, there are at least two choices on North Carolinians’ ballots for all U.S. House of Representatives seats and almost every North Carolina General Assembly race. When candidates have to campaign, voters have more opportunity to hear from candidates directly. Perhaps even more importantly, candidates on the campaign trail hear about what is important to voters in their community. North Carolina has new voting district maps for U.S. House, N.C. state Senate and N.C. state House for the 2020 elections, which could be one of the reasons we have more choices on the ballot for legislative races.
I am encouraged at the number of candidates filing for statewide 2020 races. Some have served at the local level and believe they are now ready to make a bigger impact. Some are new to politics. But the point is that there is significant interest on the part of many old and new to politics in improving democracy in North Carolina. At a time when our collective morale seems to be at an all-time low, this should give us reason to be encouraged.
We have a great slate of candidates top to bottom of the ballot. My biggest surprise is that Republicans in Watauga County could not field a complete slate of candidates for county commissioner races. It’s a sign of a significant blue shift in the county.
One of the most interesting races is Congressional District 6. Kathy Manning makes a return to the campaign trail after losing this seat last cycle. She would have to be the early favorite. However there are some serious contenders. Ed Hanes, a former state lawmaker, and Derwin Montgomery, a current state lawmaker, have both filed out of Forsyth County. However, in the newly redrawn district, Forsyth represents a small percentage of the district. If either of them are going to have a chance, they would have to penetrate Guilford County, where the majority of the district lies. From Guilford, we've got Bruce Davis, a former county commissioner, and a surprise entry from Alma Adams' chief of staff, Rhonda Foxx. With this many people in the race, it's more than likely going to need a runoff. Kathy Manning enjoys a plurality advantage being the only white candidate in the field.
There is a sense that Raleigh’s Republican era is coming to a close. Republican priorities have largely been achieved at the state level, and some heavyweights have announced retirement. What will be interesting to watch in 2020 is how many North Carolina Republicans decide to stick with Trump and how that will play with North Carolina voters in November.
Candidate filing looks a lot more like 2018 than 2016. In 2016, 46 percent of North Carolina’s General Assembly seats were unopposed, whereas in 2018, virtually every seat had both Republicans and Democrats running. The most compelling single-district filings, in my opinion, come from North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District. The 11th was shaping up to be a fairly boring election, as almost all political observers expected incumbent Mark Meadows to breeze to another victory in 2020. This ho-hum story line changed just before 6 a.m. Thursday, when Politico reported that Meadows was not seeking re-election. Within a few hours Haywood County Republican Lynda Bennett (complete with an already live campaign web site) announced she would seek Meadows’ office.
The intricacies of North Carolina’s filing rules means that Meadows’ timing couldn’t have been better for the Republican Party. Tuesday was the deadline for candidates to withdraw from a race once they had entered, and North Carolina has a law that says candidates can’t run for two offices at once. All of this means that most of the Democrats with experience who are often mentioned as potential candidates for the 11th (like state House member Brian Turner) were essentially barred from entering the race.
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