Blinken seeks to maintain US pressure on Israel in high stakes visit as Middle East tensions skyrocket

Blinken’s meetings in Israel, one of nine stops on a frenetic, weeklong crisscrossing of the region, are part of what US officials say is a constant effort to stay in touch with – and in front of – Israeli officials in an attempt to keep Israel’s war machine in check as the conflict drags on.

“What happens is you get in a room and say, ‘This is what we need to see,’” a US official told CNN, noting that breakthroughs with Israel have typically occurred after a visit by Blinken or a call from President Joe Biden. Sometimes the Israelis agree with what the US says, the official said, and sometimes they don’t and negotiations ensue.

There are “at least a dozen live issues we are pushing for,” the official told CNN, including protecting Palestinian civilians amid a skyrocketing death toll as well as creating conditions to allow desperately needed aid to get where it is required most.

Shifts by Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have been slow and incremental, and US officials have acknowledged that “gaps” remain between what they claim are Israel’s intentions and what has played out.

“We don’t tell Israel what to do, but at the same time, as close allies, these are tough conversations that you can only have as friends where you ask the hard questions,” a second US official told CNN. “You ask, ‘Well, what is your objective? What is your angle? How do you intend to achieve it? What do you think is realistic? Have you considered this, have you considered that?’”

The stakes of Blinken’s fifth trip are high as America’s allies that stood behind Israel at the start of the war but have grown critical as the civilian toll in Gaza rises. Those partners will be looking for evidence Israel is listening to the US, and, as tensions skyrocket in the region, allies are hoping Blinken can ensure Israel has a viable plan to end the war amid concerns over a wider conflict.

“We don’t expect every conversation on this trip to be easy,” Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, said Thursday before the delegation left.

Broadly, Blinken’s regional message falls into two lanes: pushing American preferences for how Israel prosecutes the war in Gaza while also working to prevent the conflict from spreading regionally amid a growing spate of flare-ups.

“We have an intense focus on preventing this conflict from spreading, and a big part of the conversations we’ll be having over the coming days with all of our allies and partners is looking at the steps that they can take, using the influence and ties that they have to do just that,” Blinken told reporters after his first two stops in Turkey and Greece.

“Too many Palestinian civilians are suffering from insufficient access to food, to water to medicine, to other essential supplies,” Blinken said at a news conference in Qatar on Sunday. “We continue to raise with Israel the need to do everything possible to facilitate the provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza, and I will do so again when I’m there later this week. I will also raise the imperative of doing more to prevent civilian casualties. Far too many innocent Palestinians have already been killed.”

Flurry of visits

US officials argue they have made a point of having top administration officials in often daily contact with senior Israeli counterparts.

In just the past month, Israeli officials have gotten visits from national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (before he was hospitalized) and Amos Hochstein, a special envoy who works on energy issues and who has close ties to Israel and Lebanon. Each, at least in public, has tried to strike a delicate balance of making US interests clear while not appearing to tell Israel what to do.

That constant American engagement, administration officials insist, has reined in many of Israel’s impulses that they say could result in a longer, more destructive and deadlier war. Were it not for America’s urging, Israel might stay in Gaza longer and might not transition to a lower-level fight as quickly, officials say. They also argue that Israel might not do as much to help get aid into Gaza if not for the US’ involvement.

After Blinken had a marathon meeting in Tel Aviv with Israel’s war Cabinet in mid-October, he announced an initial plan for humanitarian aid to be sent to Gaza. When Sullivan was in Israel in December, it was announced that Israel would allow the Kerem Shalom crossing to be used to get aid into Gaza, which the US had been pushing for.

White House officials have made clear for weeks they are eager for Israel to begin winding down its military operations to a “low-intensity” phase of fighting that would shift from heavy bombardment to more targeted operations aimed at Hamas leaders. A gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops would theoretically allow aid to be better distributed across Gaza and let residents return to their homes, areas that have seen an extraordinary level of destruction.

Perhaps telling is Blinken’s team’s reluctance to outline concrete accomplishments it expects from this latest trip. The team does, however, expect the regional leaders Blinken meets with to be more willing to discuss the multitude of issues than they have been in past conversations, as the war surpasses the three-month mark and Palestinian deaths soar past 22,000.

So far on his trip Blinken has visited Turkey, Greece, Jordan and Qatar. Before arriving in Israel, he’ll have meetings in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. After Tel Aviv, he’ll visit the West Bank and Egypt.

“There’s no substitute for being in the region and moving around country to country and picking up pieces of information with one leader and relaying that to another,” the first US official said.

Efforts to free the more than 100 hostages still held by Hamas and other groups will be a focus on multiple stops. The West Bank discussions will include what could be tense moments about the future of Palestinian governance, with the Palestinian Authority led by a widely unpopular President Mahmoud Abbas.

‘Day after’ debate

The so-called day after debate will of course include Netanyahu, who has rejected a role for the Palestinian Authority, which the US says needs to be revitalized and empowered. Blinken has laid out what the US sees as red lines for post-war Gaza governance, rejecting any occupation by Israel or reduction in territory, while the State Department also recently condemned two far-right Israeli Cabinet members for arguing Palestinians should be pushed out of Gaza.

Washington is watching warily as cross-border tit-for-tat exchanges continue between Hezbollah and Israel. On Thursday, the US military struck and killed a senior militant from an Iran-backed group in Baghdad, part of a limited series of US responses to more than 120 attacks on American and coalition forces in Iraq and Syria by Iran-supported proxy groups since October 17.

Shaking the global economy are the Houthis in Yemen, also armed and supported by Iran, who continue to threaten global shipping in the Red Sea. The group has ratcheted up attacks, drawing the first deadly US counterstrike, which sunk three Houthi boats and killed 10 militants on December 31. Last week, the Biden administration threatened military strikes in Yemen against the Houthis if the attacks continue.

Many of Blinken’s conversations with Arab leaders will focus on the specter of Iran, which is believed, experts and officials say, to be trying to stir the pot while stopping short of provoking an outright war. One of the US officials said that of the regional threats, Lebanon-based Hezbollah – also backed by Tehran – remains the overarching concern since the skirmishes across Israel’s northern border could easily slide into a more significant conflict. Officials have said Hezbollah isn’t necessarily looking for a war either, but one Western official told CNN the chances of a major escalation between Hezbollah and Israel have increased in recent days.

As Blinken tours the region he will be asking a number of partners to backchannel with Iran to try to deter those flare-ups from expanding, a senior State Department official said Friday. Direct and indirect channels with Iran – including through China – have been happening since the early days of the war.

“These trips are always a point in a larger and longer conversation,” the first US official said. “They never are discrete entities. They come in the midst of many conversations.”

But at the core of the complex, spreading mosaic of violence is the war in Gaza, so Blinken’s meetings in Israel will inevitably serve as the trip’s focal point.

“We’ll make requests, we’ll advocate, but we won’t direct because that’s not our role to tell [Israel] what to do,” the other US official said. “And it wouldn’t work.”

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