Biden readies for a high-stakes State of the Union amid tight reelection race

Biden and his team are drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.

Depending on whether Biden and Trump debate each other in the fall — neither candidate has committed to the three traditional face-offs — Thursday’s speech could amount to the president’s largest television audience before November’s vote, making this year’s edition of the annual address perhaps the most important of his presidency thus far.

Aides view Thursday’s speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation’s top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.

Also looming large over Biden’s primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president’s time and attention over the past few months. The president’s top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages-release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next weekend. Israel has warned it would expand its military operations into Rafah in southern Gaza if a deal isn’t struck before Ramadan – a scenario that US officials want to avoid at all costs.

If Biden can tout his successful efforts to bring the first cessation in fighting in the war since late November in his State of the Union speech, that could offer significant reprieve for the White House, which has come under mounting criticism and pressure to call for a permanent ceasefire.

White House officials and Biden allies hope that the Israel-Hamas war – which has eroded support for Biden among key constituencies like Arab Americans, young voters and progressives – will be fully in the rear-view mirror by November, and that perhaps Thursday’s speech could help mark a public turning of the corner in the deadly conflict.

The president is planning to travel to two key battleground states in the days immediately after the speech, with events in Philadelphia on Friday and Atlanta on Saturday, sources familiar with the plans said. Biden has yet to seriously ramp up his election year politicking with large rallies, making the post-speech swing notable, and additional travel is expected through the month.

This year’s State of the Union comes two days after Super Tuesday – a moment when campaign officials believe the Biden vs. Trump race will come into clearer focus for voters. In addition to travel, the campaign is planning to use the month of March to ramp up its efforts to organize and mobilize voters.

Huddling at Camp David

Last year, Biden and his team huddled at the mountainside presidential retreat to pour over drafts of the speech, fueled by coffee and chocolate chip cookies. The president practiced his delivery from a podium and teleprompter set up in one of the rustic lodges.

The speech comes as Biden is preparing for a repeat match-up against Trump, who has yet to secure the GOP nomination, but campaign officials believe will be the president’s fall opponent.

Biden has a tough sell to make with 39% of voters approving of his job performance, according to CNN’s poll of polls, and polling of hypothetical matchups between Biden and Trump showing a close contest between the two rivals. Most Americans in polls register disapproval of Biden’s economic record.

Preparations for Biden’s televised speech have been underway for months as his team looks to “lay out the historic achievements he has delivered on for the American people and his vision for the future,” a White House official said.

There are key parallels between State of the Union speeches delivered by Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama during their reelection years. Both faced Republican majorities in Congress after losing the chamber during midterm elections.

Like Obama, Biden will lean into a message of economic populism, touting his record on lowering certain drug prices while insisting corporations and wealthy Americans must pay more in taxes.

The president is expected to tout key pieces of legislation that garnered bipartisan support, including the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the domestic chips manufacturing law known as the CHIPS Act, officials said. Biden will talk about efforts he’s taken so far to highlight so-called junk fees – a kitchen table issue advisers believe appeals to voters.

Looking toward the future

The president also will lean into outlining economic plans going forward, including plans to drive down health care costs, prescription drug prices, and other costs and “making the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share,” officials said.

The president is also expected to discuss the need to preserve democracy – a key focal point of his arguments against Trump – and protect reproductive rights, which campaign officials believe will serve as a motivating factor for voters in November.

It wasn’t clear yet how much he planned to discuss the issue of IVF, which has become a political flashpoint after an Alabama Supreme Court ruling that found frozen embryos are children and that those who destroy them can be held liable for wrongful death.

He is, however, expected to lean into messaging on women’s reproductive health and abortion access, an issue the Biden campaign says will be a centerpiece of its efforts to attract moderate voters. Kate Cox, the Texas mother of two who has been locked in a high-profile legal battle with her state after being denied an abortion to end a life-threatening pregnancy, is expected to attend the address as a guest of the first lady.

Biden is also expected to continue to press lawmakers to pass the Senate border bill that was scuttled by Republicans – an extension of his remarks on the US southern border Thursday and an attempt to seize on a political liability ahead of November.

Behind the scenes, immigrant advocacy groups anxious that border security will drown out other immigrant rights issues are pushing the White House to balance out Biden’s messaging with other Democratic priorities like a pathway to citizenship for so-called Dreamers.

The president is also expected to promote his so-called unity agenda, a hallmark of his previous addresses to Congress that includes curbing fentanyl, ending cancer and helping veterans. But this year’s unity section is expected to have a new add – addressing “privacy and Big Tech,” aides said.

“We want to get as much done as we can, as soon as we can,” a White House official said. “We’re going to be pedal to the metal this year – and there’s much more to come in a second term.”

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