In a field of 14, GOP insiders say these 4 have a chance in closely-watched primary

For the last few years, Mike Magnanti’s rural patch of piedmont along the North Carolina-Virginia border has been represented by a Democrat in Congress.

It’s been frustrating for Magnanti, a 53-year-old insurance agent who lives in Oxford. He’s a Republican. And, even as Granville County has become more conservative, it has mostly been in congressional districts dominated by Democratic voters from Durham or northeastern North Carolina.

This year, though, Magnanti expects a sea change.

His home is now part of the new-look 13th Congressional District, which state legislators recently transformed from a toss-up district to one where the Republican nominee is expected to win by more than 10 percentage points. The near-certainty that whoever wins the GOP primary will become the area’s next congressman has attracted a massive group of Republican candidates, with 14 political newcomers vying for the seat.

“Our candidates are all very good,” said Magnanti, who’s helping the state Republican Party get out the vote in the district. “I feel like we’re in a great position because we can’t really lose.”

That’s why Democratic U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel, elected in 2022 in the toss-up configuration, isn’t seeking reelection.

By law, state lawmakers are required to redraw congressional and legislative districts at the start of every decade. A series of legal challenges and court decisions allowed North Carolina’s GOP-controlled General Assembly to redraw the maps again last year.

Their changes almost guarantee that Republicans will win 10 or 11 of the state’s 14 congressional seats, after winning seven in 2022. The new maps will be used this year and in every election through 2030, unless struck down in court first.

In 2022, the 13th Congressional District was more compact. It encompassed all of Johnston County, as well as about half of Wake, Harnett and Wayne counties.

More than a dozen Republican candidates are hoping to capitalize on a rare opportunity in congressional politics: Not only is there no incumbent, there’s no heir apparent.

None of the 14 Republican candidates are currently serving in political office.

Republican kingmakers — such as former President Donald Trump and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who’s running for governor and is popular with the state’s GOP base — haven’t endorsed anyone in the race.

And no candidate is receiving financial support from heavyweight Washington-based political groups such as Club For Growth, which has spent millions of dollars to tip the scales in other North Carolina congressional races.

Yet, whoever wins the primary could earn all that Republican support for years to come. Congressional incumbents hardly ever lose reelection.

“This is a generational seat,” said Jonathan Felts, a Raleigh-based Republican strategist. “They come up once in a lifetime.”

The candidates are mostly campaigning on the same issues as national Republicans: securing the border, cracking down on crime and limiting government regulation.

But a half dozen GOP political strategists told WRAL they believe only four candidates have a realistic shot of winning the seat: DeVan Barbour, Kelly Daughtry, Brad Knott and Fred Von Canon.

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Josh McConkey, Kenny Xu, Matt Shoemaker, David Dixon, Marcus Dellinger, Steve Van Loor, Siddhanth Sharma, Eric Stevenson, Chris Baker and James Phillips are also running. Many of them impressed voters at forums and other events around the district, said Roger Farina, the NC GOP’s chair of the district.

But it’s harder than usual for political newcomers to compete this year because the campaign season is so short. That tilts the balance in favor of candidates who already have a reputation in the district or are wealthy enough to self-fund their campaign and outspend the competition on ads, mailers or other political strategies.

“They’re all running good campaigns. No one’s getting nasty,” Magnanti said. “It’s just a matter of resources.”

Felts, a political strategist who worked on U.S. Sen. Ted Budd’s 2022 campaign, told WRAL that Barbour “would’ve been the nominee in ‘22 if Hines had not been propped up” by Club for Growth.

Barbour and Daughtry are both from Johnston County and likely gained even more familiarity with voters during the last election. That could give them a leg-up on the competition this year, as Johnston County is the biggest population center of the district. Although the district contains eight counties, nearly a third of its total population lives in Johnston.

Republican insiders say Barbour, a 40-year-old businessman, is a good retail politician. He’s charismatic, and he earned 22% of the vote in 2022 despite spending far less than his opponents.

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Barbour told WRAL he’s not worried about Johnson, who was charged with multiple crimes last year over his interactions with Barbour, including extortion.

“This is personal for me,” Barbour told WRAL. “It’s where I was born, where we live, where we work and where our kids go to school. I’m running for Congress to work for, and give back to, the community that has been so good to me and my family for generations.”

“I have built my career fighting for families, farmers and small businesses,” she told WRAL. “I know firsthand the impact Biden's disastrous agenda has had on NC. I will be a fighter and a workhorse to bring sanity back to this country.”

Von Canon may also be a familiar name for some voters. The 61-year-old businessman from Wake Forest ran for state house seats in 2020 and 2022. Both years, Von Canon won the GOP primary before losing general election races that garnered a substantial amount of media attention.

“Fred’s plan is simple – let the voters in [Congressional District]13 know who he is, where he came from and what he believes,” Hellwig said. “The campaign is confident that given that information, Fred will win.”

Knott told WRAL he doesn’t think his home address will be an issue on the campaign trail. The area has previously been represented by politicians who didn’t actually live in their district, including Nickel and Holding. There’s no law or requirement that members of Congress live in their district.

“I live in a part of Wake County that is about 5.5 miles, as the crow flies, from the borderline of the 13th District,” Knott said. ”The way district lines change, your home can be in the district one year and out of it the next.”

He thinks his campaign message will resonate with voters. “As a federal prosecutor, for the last eight years I worked with sheriffs and police to convict drug dealers and violent criminals,” he said.

GOP insiders say the race will likely go to a runoff.

A candidate must secure 30% of the vote to win the party’s nomination. With 14 Republicans on the ballot, insiders believe the crowded field will prevent someone from winning the nomination outright in the March 5 primary.

So far, the candidates have spent their limited time and resources on ads introducing themselves to voters — not attacking other candidates. But if there’s a May 14 runoff, “it’ll get mean,” Felts said.

Indeed, whoever wins the 13th Congressional District will likely have done so by touting their conservative bonafides. For voters in Wake and Johnston counties, the rhetoric will sound a lot different than what they heard in 2022.

While Hines didn’t campaign as a moderate, he softened his approach to abortion and immigration down the stretch. A month before Election Day, Hines called abortion a “states’ rights issue” and outlined some exceptions to a 10-year moratorium on immigration he had proposed.

It wasn’t enough. Nickel won by using Trump’s endorsement of Hines against him, earning the favor of suburban voters.

“It’s a shame,” Nickel said in a phone interview. “The person who wins the primary will be a far right extremist beholden to Donald Trump.”